Though he is in with a shout for a medal, at least statistically, Wayde van Niekerk is going to have to find another gear if he hopes to reclaim his 400m world title in the early hours of Saturday morning (4.35am SA time).
Lining up against a quality field, which includes some experienced campaigners, the world record holder is among the podium contenders in the one-lap final at the World Athletics Championships in Eugene.
He has not yet shown that he can hit top stride, however, as he continues to make his comeback from a serious knee injury which sidelined him after he won his second world title in London in 2017.
ALSO READ: ‘I’m back!’: Wayde looks forward to his first major final in five years
Of the seven other men in the line-up in Eugene, five have run faster than Van Niekerk this year, with the South African having clocked 44.58 earlier this month.
Looking back, the bronze medal at the World Championships has been achieved in times quicker than 44.58 at the last four editions of the biennial showpiece, and Van Niekerk will probably need to run a season’s best if he hopes to step on the podium.
Considering his pedigree, however, bronze is clearly within reach for the world record holder, who clocked 43.03 to win the Olympic title at the 2016 Rio Games.
But if he wants gold, he might have to be ready to turn his good form into a sublime performance.
ALSO READ: SA team running out of medal chances at World Athletics Champs
At the last four editions of the World Championships, as well as the last four Olympic Games, the gold medal has been won in times under 44 seconds, and Van Niekerk might have to dip under the barrier for the first time since 2017 if he wants to take top spot.
It’s a big ask for an athlete who is racing over three rounds in a major championship for the first time in five years.
He has run just 10 one-lap races since 2018, including the first-round heat and semifinal he ran in Eugene this week.
So he’s up against a wall and Van Niekerk will need to be near his best if he wants gold.
And while he will be as confident as anyone of reaching the podium, possessing the experience to spring a surprise, if he’s going to get a medal at all, he’s going to have to be quick.
Download our app and read this and other great stories on the move. Available for Android and iOS.