Preview: Senegal vs Colombia

It’s not quite a straight knockout game in Samara – a draw would still send both sides through should Japan come unstuck against Poland – but the winner of this one is definitely into the last 16 and quite possibly as group winners.

It’s a tough call. Both sides were excellent in victories over Poland – a team who must rank among the tournament’s biggest disappointments – but were less convincing against a surprisingly impressive Japan.

Colombia made life impossibly difficult for themselves with an early penalty-red card combo, while Senegal were twice pegged back by the Blue Samurai. So who wins here? The way the fixtures landed means it’s Colombia who hit this match with the momentum and 9/10 is a very fair price for the team with greater experience at this level.

However poor Poland may have been, Colombia’s 3-0 victory was mighty impressive; Colombia are 9/4 to cover a one-goal handicap and look well capable of that providing they can keep 11 players on the pitch.

Nine of Colombia’s last 12 competitive wins have come without conceding, and 2/1 looks generous for another such victory here, while four of those 12 wins ended 2-0. That scoreline is 8/1 and very backable at the price.

We’ll take a piece of that, with the insurance of a bet on the handicap should they add further goals as they did against Poland.

· Colombia (-1) to win at 9/4

· Senegal 0-2 Colombia at 8/1