Preview: Poland vs Colombia

A massive game for the two fancied sides in Group H, both of whom were massively disappointing in opening-round defeats to Senegal and Japan.

Defeat for either would mean elimination and that really would be a huge disappointment. It’s a real high-pressure game now and looks fiendishly tough to predict as we try to second-guess their reaction to such big setbacks at the start of their campaigns.

Colombia are probably the likelier winners, but quotes of 12/5 for a Poland win look like an over-reaction to an admittedly shoddy display against Senegal.

They’ve got plenty of dangerous players – including one of the world’s very best strikers – and shouldn’t be this price against anyone outside the absolute elite here.

It feels like this could go one of two ways given the context the match now has. It’s either going to be incredibly cagey, or incredibly open. Generally at this World Cup when two evenly-matched teams have clashed, it’s been the latter. This one could have goals – especially with a draw only being of limited value to either side.

Over 2.5 goals is odds-against at 23/20 and looks a pretty good shout at that price given what we saw from both defences in their first matches.

For the same reason, both teams look overpriced in the “win and both teams to score” market, where Poland are 6/1 and Colombia are 4/1. The straight 10/11 for both teams to score also looks like an ideal bet if you’re the sort of punter who likes rock-solid odds-on shots.

·         Poland to win at 12/5

·         Poland to win and both teams to score at 6/1