Blow by blow: Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia

Maybe the pressure and attention of opening the tournament got to them, maybe they were distracted by Robbie Williams. Either way, they surely can’t be as bad again. It still seems unlikely it will be enough to save them, though, against a team who look capable of going a long way in this tournament if they can stumble upon the right formula.

That rotten Saudi display against Russia means finding the value with Uruguay is tough. They are just 1/6 for the win, and no bigger than 8/15 to be leading at both half-time and full-time. It’s 3/1 that they win by four or more goals.

There’s a clear assumption that Uruguay will just turn up and do exactly what Russia did to Saudi Arabia. And that’s fair enough. But let’s not completely forget how hard Uruguay had to labour for the three points against an Egypt side with little to recommend it in Mo Salah’s absence.

At the prices available, it’s clearly now better value to look at a narrow rather than convincing Uruguay win.

Saudi Arabia are a chunky 13/10 on the handicaps to stay within a goal of Uruguay and that’s a reasonable play. They were awful on the opening day, but had lost only seven of their previous 29 competitive games since the last World Cup with five of those defeats coming by just one goal. Put another way, Saudi Arabia have covered this handicap mark in 27 of their last 30 competitive games.

Clearly this is a marked step up in opponent, but Saudi Arabia should have seen enough since their thrashing against Russia to believe they too can make things difficult. Australia – who finished behind Saudi Arabia in Asian qualifying – lost by the odd goal to France. Iceland held Argentina. Switzerland held Brazil. Egypt themselves came within minutes of a draw against Uruguay, as did Tunisia against England.

As for the goalscorer markets, Edinson Cavani looked far sharper than Luis Suarez against Egypt and it’s a surprise to see him significantly bigger in the first goalscorer betting. The 5/2 for Cavani to score first looks very decent based on what we saw from both these sides last week.