Blow by blow: Sweden vs England

And so it’s on to the quarter-finals for Gareth Southgate and his new-look England. An England side that can go toe-to-toe in a dark arts contest with a top South American side and win. An England side that can see an opportunity and rises to rather than shrinks from the occasion. And, above all, an England side that can win a penalty shootout.

Next come Sweden, who will be approaching this game in exactly the same way as England: a fantastic opportunity that might not come around for another decade or more.

If you’d offered any team in the tournament a quarter-final against Sweden or England they’d have taken it – and that’s even before considering that it’s Russia or Croatia up next.

Sweden haven’t been to the semi-finals since 1994, England since 1990. This is the first time Sweden have even got this far, while England are back where they finally came unstuck in 2002 and 2006.

It’s a great opportunity for both sides, but it won’t be easy for anyone. Sweden’s side has few stars; this England side is some way short of being an all-time great one but man for man they are undeniably vastly superior to the Swedes. What Sweden do have is supreme togetherness, determination and discipline. They have been perhaps the best organised team in Russia, and when their generally wayward finishing suddenly comes off they can beat anyone.

The crucial 3-0 victory over Mexico is a clear warning shot to England here.

But England should still progress here. We like an England win (in 90 minutes) with both teams to score at 4/1. England have scored nine goals at this tournament and haven’t yet kept a clean sheet, while Sweden have scored six despite some staggering profligacy in front of goal.

England and Sweden met in the World Cups of 2002 and 2006, as well as Euro 2012, and there were goals in all those games, with 1-1 and 2-2 draws in the World Cups followed by a topsy-turvy 3-2 England win in the Euros.

This match also features two of the most unerring penalty dispatchers of the tournament so far. Harry Kane has three (plus one in a shootout) while Andreas Granqvist has two. Neither man has ever looked like missing and, with penalties still coming thick and fast in this tournament, 15/2 for a spot-kick to open the scoring looks really generous from bet365.

Sweden are 10/1 to score any normal-time goal from a penalty, with England 11/2. Both prices look too big based on what we’ve seen so far.

Finally, we’ll go for any goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes. With the exception of the second-string’s day out against Belgium, England have made lightning starts to all their games here. They scored early against both Tunisia and Panama, and could easily have done so against Colombia.

Against a team as disciplined as Sweden, an early strike before their opponents have fully settled into their work might be England’s best shot.

·         England to win and both teams to score at 4/1

·         First goal to be a penalty at 15/2

·         Any goal before 09:59 at 7/2