Blow by blow: Russia vs Croatia

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Croatia being here is no great shock – even if their absolute domination of a supposedly difficult group was a touch surprising – but nobody – inside Russia or out – thought the hosts would still be here.

They were excellent against two poor sides in their first two games before their true level was seemingly exposed by a 3-0 defeat to Uruguay.

Russia would then lose to Spain – no shame there – and leave the tournament with heads held high. But a bizarre performance from Spain gave Russia a chance, one they grabbed with both hands during the penalty shootout.

Spain played as if protecting a lead long after they’d lost it. What they were playing at with their 1100 ineffective passes is anyone’s guess, but what we can be reasonably sure of is that Croatia will be less obliging.

The weariness in their last-16 clash with Denmark is a concern but they look must-bet material at 6/5 to win this in 90 minutes. Russia did a fine job against Spain, but they were helped by their opponents’ tactics.

Croatia won three out of three in the group stage – all against better teams than Russia – and despite a subdued display were rarely in serious danger of defeat before the penalties against a very decent Denmark side.

If Croatia get anywhere near their best, they win this. Even if they don’t they may still do so.

Croatia at 7/2 giving up a goal start also looks like decent value. Russia’s one defeat when exposed by superior opponents ended 3-0, while Croatia covered the start in victories over Nigeria and Argentina before a much-changed side only beat Iceland 2-1. Their first team may well be better for the run against Denmark.

·         Croatia to win in 90 minutes at 6/5

·         Croatia (-1) to win in 90 minutes at 7/2