Blow by blow: Iran vs Spain

Spain were, at times, irrepressible against Portugal in that stunning 3-3 draw but it would be wrong to assume they can just turn up and take the three points in this one from a team that will be full of confidence and know that they will remain firmly in the qualification picture whatever happens here.

In 18 qualification matches, Iran conceded just five goals. In the final qualifying round, their GF-GA column read 10-2 from 10 matches. The 1-0 win over Morocco was a shock, but it should not have been a seismic one.

Clearly, Spain represent a huge step up in class here but there are plenty of reasons to think Iran can at least keep it tight. Evens for under 2.5 goals in this one looks a fine starting point; it would have landed in nine of those 10 Iran qualifiers, the only exception a 2-2 draw against Syria in the final game once qualification was secure.

Spain could make a mockery of that price within 30 minutes but it’s worth noting that they scored only twice in games against Macedonia, Albania and Israel during qualification.

Given Iran’s own lack of goals, Spain to win to nil at 1/2 certainly looks a better choice than 2/11 outright quotes, although neither is worth getting too excited about.

Draw/Spain in the HT/FT betting at 12/5 might be the best way of getting a Spain win onside at a more acceptable price – a goalless first half is also a reasonable 9/4 – but Spain, unusually, score as many in the first half as they do in the second (a 33-34 split in competitive games since Brazil 2014), while Spain have led at the break in 17 of their last 20 competitive victories.