Blow by blow: Denmark vs France

Denmark will be absolutely kicking themselves if they fail to get out of this group after kicking off with a win over Peru, but they should still be okay.

For one thing, they need only a draw against a France side still yet to fully convince and would be pretty capable of getting such a result under normal circumstances. Here, they have the added benefit of the fact a draw suits France as well.

A Denmark win would see them top the group at France’s expense, while a France win would put the Danes at risk of elimination should Australia beat Peru. A draw, then, appears to suit everybody: it ensures France top the group, and guarantees Denmark’s progression to the last 16.

These convenient truths in no way ensure the game will end in a draw, but given it’s a perfectly plausible result in any case between two good teams, the fact it suits all parties doesn’t hurt its chances.

With no final-day context, we’d expect to see the draw somewhere around 5/2, and it is considerably shorter than that at 7/4. But it still looks a bet given everything we know. Certainly, if it’s level going into the closing stages and the Australia-Peru game remains up for grabs then neither side here is going to be taking undue risks in search of a winner.

With that in mind – and at the very slight risk of trying to be too clever for our own good – Draw-Draw on the HT/FT at 3/1 might be the better play.

The alternative take is that were Peru to take a decisive early lead against Australia then Denmark would be free to really go for the group-topping win, but we’re now definitely heading into ‘clever-clever’ territory.

This match could yet get complicated, but right now there’s a pretty straightforward course for it to follow that merits support.

· Draw/Draw HT/FT at 3/1