Blow by blow: Australia vs Peru

A contentious Mile Jedinak penalty against Denmark kept Australia’s hopes alive, and there’s every chance that Jedinak and his Beard will be to the fore again as the Socceroos push for a last-16 spot.

Australia need to beat Peru and then hope Denmark lose against France. It’s not the worst set of permutations you could be up against.

Peru, having lost 1-0 to both France and Denmark, are out, and it is how they approach this game that will probably be the key.

They have been impressive in defeat in both games, but will surely play differently against the Socceroos, who are themselves game but limited.

If Peru play with carefree abandon, as they are now entitled to, they could end up winning this easily. We saw on Monday night how dangerous an eliminated side playing without fear or pressure can be when Morocco almost beat Spain. And Australia are no Spain.

But if they don’t match Australia’s inevitable endeavour, Peru could easily come unstuck. Can Australia be backed at 21/10 to get the win they need? It’s probably still a touch too short for a side that has so few goalscoring options in its ranks.

Which leads us to the standout bet. Mile Jedinak is 11/2 to score Australia’s first goal of the game. He has scored Australia’s last five competitive goals and, given the number of penalties we’ve seen in Russia already, it matters not a jot that four of those have come from the spot.

There are eight Socceroos shorter than him in this market, and that just cannot be right based on everything we’ve seen from Australia, and around the awarding of penalties at this tournament in general.

Jedinak to score the goal in a 1-0 Australia win also looks like a good place for some small change at 50/1 given Australia’s resolute efforts thus far and Peru’s pair of 1-0 defeats.

· Mile Jedinak first Australia goalscorer at 11/2

· Mile Jedinak to score and Australia win 1-0 at 50/1