Sudan stun Ghana, but what does that mean for Bafana Bafana?

Qualifying from Group C for the 2022 Africa Cup of Nations finals was blasted wide open on Wednesday, as Sudan pulled off the shock of the group thus far, a late goal giving them a 1-0 win over Ghana.

If Ghana had beaten Sudan in Omdurman, it would have qualified the Black Stars for Cameroon 2022 (the tournament is now set for January of that year), and left South Africa needing just a point from their home qualifier against Ghana in March to join them.

Even a draw would have put Ghana into the Africa Cup of Nations finals, because of a superior head-to-head record against Sudan in qualifying, the first criteria by which teams will be separated if they finish the group level on points.

Bafana would then have been guaranteed a place in the finals if they had beaten Ghana at home, but as it stand, Sudan’s late goal makes it nearly impossible for Molefi Ntseki’s men to guarantee their progress to Cameroon 2022 until their final qualifier away to Sudan, also in March.

Having lost 2-0 to Ghana in their opening Group C match, South Africa would have to beat the Black Stars by three clear goals at home to overtake them in terms of their head-to-head record, and make it impossible for Ghana to catch them in Group C.

If Sudan cannot beat Sao Tome, in their penultimate qualifier, Bafana will progress by beating Ghana, but this is unlikely with the islanders clearly the group’s whipping boys at present, even if they did run Bafana close on Monday in Port Elizabeth.

More likely is that Bafana will go into their final qualifier away to Sudan needing at least a point to get to the Afcon finals, a similar scenario to their qualification campaign in 2019, when two stunning Percy Tau goals in a 2-1 win over Libya on neutral territory in Tunisia got Stuart Baxter’s side to Egypt 2019.

The good news for Bafana is that whatever happens to them against Ghana, even if they lose, they will qualify for the Afcon finals with a draw in Sudan, by virtue of their 1-0 home win over Sudan earlier in the campaign.

If Ghana beat South Africa, Sudan beat Sao Tome, and them Bafana and Sudan draw, Sudan and Bafana  would be tied on points, but South Africa’s better head-to-head record would see them through.

Bafana’s fate is still very much in their own hands, though Sudan’s win over Ghana has spiced up what should be a thrilling finale to Group C.

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