EXPLAINER – What Bafana need to do to reach the 2026 Fifa World Cup

If Bafana Bafana can beat Benin in Abidjan on Tuesday evening, they will take a giant leap towards the 2026 Fifa World Cup finals in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

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Here, Phakaaathi runs the rule over exactly what Bafana need to do to book their place in a World Cup finals for the first time (via qualification) in 24 years.

How does the qualifying process work?

World footballing body Fifa has increased the number of teams that will play in the World Cup finals from 32 to 48. As a result, the number of automatic places for African sides at the finals has increased from five to nine.

There are nine groups in the final phase of qualifying for the World Cup. The winners of those groups will qualify automatically for the finals.

The four best group runners up will go into play-offs to determine who will be the Confederation of African Football’s representative at the inter-confederation play-offs.

The inter-confederation play-offs will see one African country will go up against one from Asia; one from South America; one from Oceania and two from North and Central America for two places at the World Cup finals.

To cut a long story short, Bafana need to focus on winning their group to avoid pulling out their calculators and worrying about permutations.

And how are Bafana doing in their group?

Very well indeed so far. Bafana are top of Group C at at the halfway stage, two points clear of second placed Benin, who they play in Abidjan on Tuesday. Here is the group in full:

What on earth has happened to Nigeria?

Good question. The Super Eagles started the campaign as clear favourites to win the group. But they picked up just three points from their opening four qualifying matches. Nigeria looked much better in Friday’s win in Rwanda. But four points behind Bafana, they are most certainly on the back foot.

So what do Bafana need to do to qualify?

If Bafana can beat Benin on Tuesday, and beat Rwanda, Lesotho and Zimbabwe, they will qualify for the World Cup, whatever Nigeria do. The Lesotho and Zimbabwe games are ‘away from home’. But note the quotation marks.

This is why the game against Benin is so important. Just those three points on Tuesday would make Bafana clear favourites to win Group C.

There are actually many ways, with five games left to play, that Bafana could top Group C. But winning those four matches would be the cleanest way to do it. It would also mean Bafana could afford to lose at home to Nigeria in September.

But won’t Zimbabwe and even Lesotho be tricky away?

This brings us to those quotation marks. Zimbabwe and Lesotho do not have home stadiums that meet CAF regulations. So they are playing their home qualifiers in …. South Africa. This fact alone weighs in Bafana’s favour in World Cup qualification.

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Bafana effectively have four home games in a row to finish off their campaign. And they are not even playing Benin in Benin. They also do not have a suitable home stadium and are playing their home games in the Ivory Coast.

It’s all in Bafana’s hands.