Kaizer Chiefs or Mamelodi Sundowns? – how the title race will be decided

And then there were two. Kaizer Chiefs and Mamelodi Sundowns are officially the only two teams left in the running for the Absa Premiership, and the race couldn’t be much closer heading into the final games of the season on Saturday afternoon.

Amakhosi and Masandawana both sit on 56 points, with Chiefs taking on Baroka FC at Bidvest Stadium on Saturday and Sundowns going up against Black Leopards at Dobsonville Stadium. Both games kick off at 3.30 pm, so by around 5.30 one team will be in ecstasy and the other contemplating the dreaded runners-up spot.

It is Chiefs who have the clear advantage on goal difference, the criteria by which the league will be decided first if the two teams finish level on points. A Chiefs victory over Baroka, therefore, is highly likely to give them the title, whatever Sundowns do against Leopards.

The Premier Soccer League’s rules for separating teams who finish the season tied on points are as follows:

Studying these rules, the furthest we could go to decide the 2019/20 title between Chiefs and Sundowns would be the head-to-head results between the two in the league this season. In this case, Chiefs would take it, because they won 2-0 at Sundowns, while Sundowns only won 1-0 at Chiefs.

This tie-breaker will surely not be required, however, because of Chiefs’ clear advantage over Sundowns in terms of both goal difference and goals scored. The exact current standings are as follows:

Chiefs have a three-goal advantage over Sundowns in terms of goal difference and a seven-goal advantage over Sundowns in terms of goals scored, the second criteria in the rules for separating teams.

HEAD TO HEAD

Therefore, the only situation in which head-to-head can decide this league title is if, for example, Chiefs beat Baroka 1-0 and Sundowns beat Leopards 8-4. The former could happen, the latter almost certainly won’t and all other scenarios are equally ludicrous.

GOAL DIFFERENCE

There would also need to be a major swing in goal difference for Sundowns to overtake Chiefs and win the league on the final day of the season. Given Chiefs’ advantage in terms of goals scored, if Amakhosi win 1-0, Sundowns would have to thrash Leopards 5-0 to overtake Ernst Middendorp’s men. If it comes down to goal difference, it’s a safe bet Chiefs will win the title.

GOALS SCORED

Chiefs’ have scored seven more goals than Sundowns this season, meaning that if the two teams somehow finish level on points and goal difference, Chiefs will still win the league. If Sundowns can miraculously overtake Chiefs in terms of goals scored on the final day, the likelihood is Masandawana will then win the league on goal difference. In the only other scenario, the two teams would be tied and Chiefs would win the league on head-to-head.

A SAFE BET: CHIEFS WILL WIN THE TITLE IF THEY BEAT BAROKA

All the above scenarios are slightly in the realm of fantasy.

If Chiefs win on Saturday, they will surely have a first title in five seasons in the bag.

Even if they draw, Chiefs will win the title if Sundowns also fail to beat Leopards.

Even if Chiefs lose, they will win the title if Sundowns also lose to Leopards.

SO HOW CAN SUNDOWNS WIN THE TITLE?

It’s simple. Sundowns will win the title if Chiefs fail to win and they pick up three points against Leopards. They will also win the title if Chiefs draw with Baroka and they beat Leopards. And if Chiefs lose to Baroka, all Sundowns will need is a point to lift their third Absa Premiership title in three seasons.

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