What the Lions must do to reach the URC playoffs

The Sharks’ 25-22 win over the Lions in Durban last weekend was the final catch-up match that brought all 16 United Rugby Championship (URC) teams level on 12 games played.

All the sides now know exactly where they stand on the points log, with six pool games remaining before the competition hits the knockout phase.

The five points gained by the Sharks for their bonus point win solidified them in fourth place and pushed them six points ahead of Munster, giving them crucial breathing room as the competition heads into the business end.

For the Lions, they will be disappointed to not have come away with more, but their losing bonus point moved them into the top eight, level on 29 points with Connacht one place below them.

Congested log

They are, however, slap bang in the middle of an incredible battle to finish in the playoff spots, as just eight points separate Munster in fifth on 33 points and Zebre in 15th on 25 points.

The log is ridiculously congested and 15 out of 16 teams can still make it into the knockouts, which should lead to an extremely competitive six game run in.

If the Lions want to reach the URC playoffs for the first time, after finishing 12th in their debut season and ninth over the following two, they will likely need to win four of their last six games, and that might even not be enough.

Over the first three URC seasons, 50 points seems to be the magical number that can secure a spot in the top eight.

In the 2021-22 season Glasgow were the eighth and final team to reach the knockouts, finishing on 50 points ahead of Ospreys on 46 in ninth, while the 2022-23 season saw the Sharks edge into the playoffs with 48 points, ahead of the Lions on 45.

Last season it was heartbreak for the Lions as they finished level on 50 points with Ospreys, only for the Welsh side to sneak in ahead of them by virtue of having won more games, 10 wins against nine.

Cardiff and Glasgow away games for Lions

This season is currently the most competitive in URC history, and could end with a number of teams level on points, needing to be separated by either wins or points difference.

This coming weekend is a bye for all URC sides, before they return to action next weekend, and first up for the Lions is an incredibly important clash against Cardiff in Wales.

Cardiff have enjoyed a decent season so far, and currently sit sixth on the log on 31 points, so a win for the Lions would allow them to leapfrog them, and put them in a good place ahead of their second tour game against defending champs and second on the log Glasgow Warriors.

On their return home the Lions finish with four games on the Highveld, against Benetton, Connacht, Scarlets and Ospreys, all teams they are fighting against for a playoff spot, so any loss against them would be a big blow to their chances.