OPINION: Their failure to beat local opposition could be the Lions’ downfall

The Lions’ inability to beat their South African rivals will likely scupper their goal of achieving the top-eight finish they need to reach the United Rugby Championship (URC) quarterfinals this season.

Before this season’s campaign started the big goal for the Lions was a place in the competition playoffs, which would give them a good chance of qualifying for the premium Champions Cup competition next season.

However, their dreadful form against local teams will likely prove to be their downfall in this endeavour.

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In the URC every team plays each side at least once, except for teams in the same regional pool, who play each other twice, both home and away.

The South African regional shield sees the Lions having to face the Stormers, Bulls and Sharks twice each, accounting for six of their 18 matches in the tournament.

That means if the Lions lose all six of their local derbies they somehow have to win approximately 10 of their 12 games against foreign opposition to reach the knockouts, and still hope things go their way, going on last season’s log.

How it stands after Round 10 📈

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Last season three sides finished with 10 wins from 18 games, with Edinburgh in seventh and Glasgow in eighth qualifying for the quarters, while Ospreys in ninth missed out.

The Lions finished with eight wins from 10, seeing them end 12th on the log.

Of those eight wins, seven were against foreign sides, with their only victory over local opposition coming from a surprise win against eventual URC champs the Stormers in Cape Town in December last year.

At the halfway point in their season, the Lions currently sit in eighth place after nine games, with five wins and four losses.

Foreign victories

All five wins have come against foreign opposition, while three of their four losses have come against South African sides.

If the Lions are unable to win their next three games against their local rivals, it essentially means they have to win five of their six games against foreign sides, which includes games against Irish powerhouses Leinster at home and Munster away.

It will be a tall ask for the Lions, and if they can’t reach their target they will only have themselves to blame for not being able to beat their closest rivals.

It’s not to say that beating their rivals is an easy task, as the Lions are the only South African side with no current Springboks in their squad, while they also have the least depth of the four franchises.

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But they have had opportunities to get wins over their rivals in favourable conditions and haven’t taken them.

In their two home derbies so far, against the Bulls at the start of the season and the Stormers just before the international break, the Lions faced weakened sides missing a number of Bok stars.

The Bulls and Stormers still put out formidable teams in those games, but they were teams the Lions would have fancied beating, especially at home.

In the Bulls match, which was both sides’ first of the season, the teams were level pegging at 15-all early in the second half before the Lions faded badly to fall to a 31-15 loss in the end.

The Stormers match was even worse as a sparkling first half showing from the home side saw them take a comfortable 22-10 lead into the half-time break, only for a dreadful second half allowing the visitors to score 21 unanswered points for a 31-22 win.

Both those games were ripe for the picking for the Lions, and due to them being unable to put their rivals away, they now have the unenviable task of trying to beat Springbok laden sides like the Stormers and Bulls away, while their final home derby will be against the Sharks.