Boks-Lions series decider: The five key factors

It’s the final Test between the Springboks and British and Irish Lions at the Cape Town Stadium on Saturday (kickoff 6pm).

Here The Citizen looks at five factors that will play a role in who comes out on top to take the series.

Momentum

Despite the officiating blunders in the first Test, the hosts will look back and concede they were out-played and out-smarted by the British and Irish Lions – especially in the second half.

The Springboks though, after a 50/50 first half in the second Test, dominated in the last 40 minutes last weekend. They scored two tries, kept the Lions scoreless and controlled every aspect of the game.

With that in the back of their minds, the hosts will have all the momentum and confidence going into the decider. However, much will depend on who gets on top of who in the early stages to set the tone for the match, so a solid start will be key.

Bok defence

Lions boss Warren Gatland has made six changes to his side for the match – an admission of sorts that he has got some of his selections wrong in the first two Tests. Still, it seems, Gatland isn’t sure about his best XV, so confidence won’t be sky-high and there will be questions about how to get the better of the Boks in the key areas, and most especially, the defence.

The home team have been hugely impressive in this department ever since Jacques Nienaber became involved and in the two Tests so far have conceded just one try, from a driving maul. If the Bok defence holds up like it did in the second Test, there will be only one winner, and it won’t be the Lions.

Aerial battle

The Lions got the better of the Boks in this department in game one, but the Boks won the aerial fight in round two. Who will come out on top this time – and there is almost certainly going to be a lot of kicking once again; it’s the way these two teams are set up to play.

The Lions have brought in Liam Williams and Josh Adams in the back three, with Duhan van der Merwe still there, to handle the high ball, and Gatland will hope they perform better than in the second Test, while the Boks will hope Cheslin Kolbe, Makazole Mapimpi and Willie le Roux rise high.

Bok changes

Three of the home team’s biggest and most important players are now missing from the lineup. Duane Vermeulen hasn’t featured at all in the series, but for the decider the Boks will have to make do without Pieter-Steph du Toit and Faf de Klerk – two key players, in attack and defence. How will the Boks go without them?

Franco Mostert is a tireless work horse and will bring energy at flank, while Lood de Jager is a class act at lock and there shouldn’t be too much of a change up front. Cobus Reinach, in the nine jersey, will have a lot on his shoulders.

The officials

Unfortunately the matchday officials have been as big a talking point as the players and coaching teams during the series. Heck, South Africa’s rugby director Rassie Erasmus even made a video about his unhappiness with the refereeing in the first Test when Australian Nic Berry was in charge.

New Zealand’s Ben O’Keeffe was widely lauded for his handling of the second Test, but how will things go in the decider with France’s Mathieu Raynal in charge? Will he be as chatty as O’Keeffe was with his assistants and the players last week, and how will he handle key areas of the game, which are often refereed differently in the northern hemisphere to the southern hemisphere?