All Blacks 100th Test: Don’t bank on a Bok win – what the stats tell us

The Springboks will be fired up and confident of knocking over the All Blacks on neutral ground in Townsville, Australia in a Rugby Championship match this Saturday – as is always the case.

The statistics between the teams, however, tell us the New Zealanders are heavy favourites to win the game – as is always the case.

There’s no doubt the Boks will be pumped up. They have lost twice to the Wallabies in the last fortnight, their egos are bruised and, for whatever reason, the All Blacks seem to bring out the best in the Boks.

And, on this occasion, it’s the 100^th meeting of the teams in the Test arena, so there’s a lot to play for, including pride.

Bok boss Jacques Nienaber, his assistants and the players have spoken about bouncing back this week, fixing the errors of the last two weeks, and going back to what the Boks do well, but the reality is the South Africans have a mountain to climb.

Balanced matchday-23

The 23-man matchday squad may be more balanced, according to some observers, because of the choice of the more traditional five forwards and three backs on the bench, including tried and tested goal-kickers in Elton Jantjies and Frans Steyn, but the All Blacks will care little.

A look at the recent performances and results of two of the biggest rivals in rugby suggest Nienaber and Co will have to produce something magical once again for the Boks to not lose for a third time in a row in the Rugby Championship.

Since the World Cup in 2019, the All Blacks have played 14 Tests and won 11, with two defeats and one draw. The Boks in the same time have played eight, won five and lost three.

And, let’s not forget, while the Boks won the World Cup in 2019, in their first pool game in Japan, New Zealand beat them 23-13.

Recent results

Also, the All Blacks have won their last nine Tests, while the Boks go into Saturday’s game with two defeats behind them and questions being asked about their game-plan, selections and the coaching team.

More worrying for the Boks is the fact that they have won just three of their last 20 matches (two home and one away) against the All Blacks since 2010: 18-5 in Gqeberha in 2011, 27-25 in Joburg in 2014 and 36-34 in Wellington in 2018.

Overall, in the previous 99 Tests, New Zealand have won 59, the Boks 36.

While Springboks-All Blacks Tests are always big affairs, and though the clash might be deemed the biggest in rugby, the statistics tell us New Zealand are dominant against South Africa.

Bok wins in recent times have been few and far between. On Saturday in Townsville, there should again be no expectation that they will come out on top. It would, in fact, be a major surprise if they did pull it off.