Take the scenic route through a valley of confusion

“I’m not lost, I’m just taking the scenic route through the valley of confusion.”

That’s what the man leaning on the counter of the members’ bar murmured when I asked for his views on the 2024 Hollywoodbets Durban July to be run at Greyville racecourse on 6 July.

I sympathise. Three postponed feature races staged in midweek – following Saturday’s farcical riotous assembly at Greyville – hardly helped to clarify the July picture.

There’s another saying: when you’re in doubt, just hit the confusion button and watch what unfolds.

That’s what this weekend’s Greyville meeting – headlined by the Grade 2 WSB 1900, a traditional July “pointer” – looks like to perplexed punters.

Rough seas

The July preparation races are largely opaque, the betting market is volatile and last year’s runner-up See It Again has been the only constant star to guide us in rough seas.

One thing that has become clear is that Wednesday’s WSB Guineas winner Green With Envy is surely as smart as trainer Dean Kannemeyer has often asserted. The way the three-year-old colt from Cape Town came from the back of the field to overhaul odds-on favourite Sandringham Summit marked him out as a potent force ahead of Africa’s greatest horse race in seven weeks’ time.

Punters and bookmakers got busy and Green With Envy’s pre-race odds of 7-1 quickly dropped to 15-4 – moving him to the top of the boards, displacing popular local hero See It Again.

The handicappers were on it, too, hiking Green With Envy’s merit rating from 119 to 123 and describing his performance as “eye-catching” and “impressive” after the much ballyhooed Highveld raider Sandringham Summit had got “first run” in the rather slowly run 1600m Grade 2 classic.

Kannemeyer knows how to win the July with young, fast-improving, relatively unexposed horses, having done it with Dynasty, Eyeofthetiger and Power King in the past two decades. It’s no surprise his newest star has leapt to the forefront of thinking.

Line horse

The officials chose third-placed Snow Pilot, trained by Justin Snaith, as the line horse to assess the Guineas, leaving him unchanged on an MR of 120.

Since Durban July first entries were announced last week, Snow Pilot has been supplemented into the big race and has slotted into the odds at 33-1.

Of course, Sandringham Summit’s connections have opted not to run him in the July – for now.

Also catching the shrewd eye was Snaith’s Hluhluwe, who returned from a two-month hiatus to gallop into fourth just 1.4 lengths behind stablemate and line horse Snow Pilot. His rating went from 111 to 116, which sealed his spot in the July lineup and saw punters reduce his value from 66-1 to 25-1.

Other action

As for the rest of the midweek action, we did not learn a great deal.

The scratching of Main Defender from Saturday’s scheduled Grade 2 Drill Hall Stakes has racing fans confused and bemused and the gelding’s July chances have gone walkabout. From a price of 25-1 a week ago, he can now be backed at 55-1.

The finish of the delayed Drill Hall was fought out by joint 7-2 favourites Royal Aussie and Cousin Casey, with the former getting the decision. He dropped from 66-1 to 50-1, while the latter edged from 40-1 to 35-1. But the 1400m contest told us nothing we didn’t already know about two candidates that remain marginal to most calculations.

Hopefully, on Saturday, prominent July entries Much Dinero, Safe Passage, Future Swing and Without Question will answer nagging questions about their ability at the top level, while progressive hopefuls such as Atticus Finch, Formagear, Narina Trogon and Master Redoute could surprise and find themselves in the 6 July field.