Summer Cup stirs the MR soup

Merit rating (MR) adjustments to horses competing in last weekend’s Betway Summer Cup at Turffontein offer an instructive – if unavoidably complex – example of how the MR handicapping system and “under sufferance” weighting works in big races.

Atticus Finch, winner of the Grade 1, R6-million contest, has had his merit rating raised a sizeable nine points – from 112 to 121 – by the National Horseracing Authority’s official handicappers.

Each MR point equals half a kilo in the South African handicapping system.

Atticus Finch carried 54kg, the minimum weight specified in the race conditions. The maximum weight allowed was 60kg, which was carried by the top-rated runner See It Again.

But Atticus Finch’s weight was 3.5kg “under sufferance” – or 3.5kg more than his MR would theoretically dictate in a major race. This equates to seven MR points as the race was benchmarked at MR119 for the minimum weight of 54kg.

‘Standards and status’

“This benchmark ensures that the race keeps a minimum standard of 119,” explains the NHA. Standards and status must be upheld.

With operators 4Racing keen to have a full field of 20 runners – for prestige and betting turnover reasons – there were 11 candidates among the final acceptors who were below the 119 benchmark and therefore under sufferance – among them Atticus Finch on 112.

After the race, the handicappers put on their thinking caps and decided that runner-up Purple Pitcher was the appropriate “line horse” for assessing the 2024 Summer Cup – in other words, the horse they reckoned ran closest to his or her MR.

Purple Pitcher’s MR of 123 therefore remains unchanged.

This is where more data enters the picture: the distances separating the finishers.

With one length equaling one kilo over 2000m on the handicap conversion table, Atticus Finch’s 1.10-length margin of victory means his rating should be roughly a kilo or two off Purple Pitcher’s – or an MR of about 122/121.

The handicappers take a few other factors into their final assessment.

Confusing

“It must be borne in mind that Atticus Finch’s adjustment includes the under-sufferance amount of seven points,” says the NHA.

Confused? You have every right to be.

Of course, the best professional punters – sometimes called handicappers themselves – know all this and engage in hours of number crunching in search of anomalies, discrepancies and miscalculations.

Most racing fans couldn’t be bothered and just go with the flow. Nevertheless, it is worth knowing something about the mechanics of the system to help understand what the NHA is talking about when it makes its regular MR adjustment announcements.

Other Summer Cup runners to get increases in ratings were third-place finisher Rule By Force, who went up from 112 to 117 and fourth-place finisher Madison Valley, who went up to 117 from 110.

“Rule By Force was seven points under sufferance but finished two points (1.15 lengths) behind the line horse and Madison Valley was 10 points under sufferance but finished three points (1.25 lengths) behind the line horse, hence their respective adjustments,” explains the brains trust.

The following horses were given MR drops: Frances Ethel (from 118 to 117), Puerto Manzano (120 to 119), Future Pearl 118 to 117), Litigation (114 to 113), My Soul Mate (108 to 105), Hotarubi (115 to 114) and Pure Predator (119 to 118).

The most impressive performance on Summer Cup day was the filly Quid Pro Quo’s demolition of her male rivals in the Grade 2 Dingaans.

It saw her MR go from 112 to 115, with runner-up Fire Attack (111) being made the line horse.

“The handicappers observed that this filly won by far easier than the numerical official margin and further noted that she was clearly eased down before the finish, hence her adjustment to 115 from 112,” explains the NHA.