Search is on for a Summer Cup longshot

Many racing fans are expecting a longshot to win Saturday’s Betway Summer Cup at Turffontein – little wonder after plenty of upset results in Joburg’s premier race over the past couple of decades.

Royal Victory (33-1 in 2023), Flying Carpet (25-1 in 2021), Zillzaal (28-1 in 2019) and Liege (16-1 in 2017) were the most recent slaps inflicted on the betting public.

So, punters are searching more intently than usual for a value proposition and the betting buck is being spread widely across the 20 runners in Africa’s richest race. It’s not just punters; tipsters are casting their nets further than usual in search of the ever-elusive “shrewdy”.

Winchester Mansion, Barbaresco

That means fancied horses have not tightened as expected in the market, but some outliers have.

The likes of Hotarubi (40-1), Zeus (35-1) and Purple Pitcher (20-1) have all been touted in public by normally sane and sober people.

South Africa’s top-rated horse See It Again has been the favourite from the moment ante-post betting opened on the R6-million Summer Cup, hovering around the 3-1 mark. In the past week, the Michael Roberts-trained raider from Durban drifted out to 4-1 before ducking back to 5-2.

See It again is too consistent and brave a performer for any serious player to allow him to drift on an outgoing tide.

Similar ebbs and flows have been seen with other shorter-priced runners, like long-time second-favourite Frances Ethel (15-2 on Wednesday), defending champion Royal Victory (8-1) and Silver Sanctuary (10-1).

Horses that have shortened notably in recent weeks include Winchester Mansion and Barbaresco, who showed their fitness and track aptitude when finishing first and third respectively in the Charity Mile at Turffontein a month ago.

Purple Pitcher

Another attracting steady money has been Purple Pitcher – in from 30-1 to 20-1. Trained at the Big T by Robyn Klaasen, the four-year-old is perfectly course and distance suited and has had a copybook preparation for the Grade 1.

The most dramatic price plunger has been Main Defender. The highly rated four-year-old gelding, trained at Turffontein by Tony Peter, was quoted at 35-1 by the race sponsor in the first week of November but was slashed to 10-1 after running second in the Grade 3 Victory Moon Stakes on the 11th of the month.

That race was over 1800m on soft ground and many pundits were forced to revise their view that he wouldn’t have the stamina reserves for the Summer Cup’s 2000m.

When in-form jockey Gavin Lerena was declared to ride Royal Victory and not Main Defender, as expected, the latter eased out to 12-1.

An open betting market was to be expected with the best quality field for the Summer Cup in years. The grand old race’s recent reputation for shocks has made it more so.

SUMMER CUP BETTING

28-10 See It Again
15-2 Frances Ethel
8-1 Royal Victory
10-1 Silver Sanctuary, Barbaresco
12-1 Main Defender, Winchester Mansion
20-1 Purple Pitcher, Atticus Finch
25-1 Beating Wings
28-1 Pure Predator
35-1 Future Pearl, Zeus
40-1 and upwards the others