Racing Express, Wednesday 16 February: Vaseem for Vaal victory

Vaseem has performed remarkably well since joining Roy Magner’s yard last March and in the ensuing year, has raced eight times for four wins and three places. Even in his one unplaced run, which was in the Grade 3 Merchants over 1160m at Turffontein, Vaseem had an excuse as he lost ground at the start and never got into the race.

For the full version of Wednesday’s edition of Racing Express, as found in The Citizen, click here.

He lines up again tomorrow in Race 7, a Pinnacle Stakes over 1200m at the Vaal, and can get back on a winning track. After his 6.25-length defeat in the Merchants, Vaseem rebounded beautifully last time in a Pinnacle Stakes over 1100m at Turffontein to finish a 1.20-length second behind Sweet Future.

The most interesting statistic about his last six runs is that the average merit rating of the field has risen exponentially from 77 to 114. Apart from that one blip on his radar, Magner’s charge has been highly competitive as the bar has been raised. In the process, his own rating has risen back to 105 after peaking at 111 and dropping to as low as 94.

He, however, comes into this race carrying just 54kg and will be ridden for the first time by Raymond Danielson. Back on the up, he obviously has not lost a millimetre of his competitiveness, but in this field, he will have to work very hard to score a seventh career victory.

He is not one of the best weighted runners he still could be better than that rating. In fact, the best handicapped runners based on merit ratings are Celestial Love, Mr Flood and Singforafa but none has been in the best of form of late.

For the full version of Wednesday’s edition of Racing Express, as found in The Citizen, click here.

The biggest danger is Winter Smoke. She is 1.5kg better weighted than Vaseem and gets a further 2.5kg, courtesy of the allowance allotted to apprentice Kaidan Brewer. Carrying just 51kg, she also has the benefit of jumping from gate No 9. While this might sound surprising, but the outside strip down the Vaal straight has been the favourite line for jockeys recently, due to the track sloping to the inside. Once you look past these two it is anybody’s guess, especially if a horse like Mr Flood, Bold Ransom or Eden Roc are suddenly  revitalized and find their old form.