Racing Express, Monday 14 February: Thorn to defy the form

How much can improvement in a horse overtake a weight disadvantage? That is a question punters will have to answer in Race 4 tomorrow, a Middle Stakes for horses with nett ratings of 92 and below over 2,400m on the Vaal Classic track.

Sean Tarry-trained Black Thorn is turning into a decent stayer and the four-year-old Pomodoro gelding has really thrived since his trainer started to race him over longer distances. In fact, he is unbeaten in three starts over 2,400m and will be looking to increase that tally in this event.

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However, on paper he should not win. He beat Un Deux Trois by two lengths the last time they met, and the Ashley Fortune-trained filly is now 4kg better off. Just 0.25 lengths behind Un Deux Trois that time was Barak and he is also 4kg better off.

The same is true for Traveling Wilbury who is 6kg better off for a 3.50 lengths defeat. However, that race was in November last year and Black Thorn went on to win again in his next start. With those two victories his rating went up 12 points (6kg) so the handicappers believe he has improved quite a bit with each win.

As this is a Middle Stakes Black Thorn does not come out as the best weighted runner. That position goes to five-year-old mare Ballet Shoes who has not been in the best of form lately. So, in spite of the weight disadvantage, Black Thorn can continue to improve and should be good enough to beat this opposition again. He is drawn No 12 which is not an advantage but over 2,400m the draw should not have too much of a negative effect.

With in-form Gavin Lerena up, he should get all the assistance needed from the saddle. Un Deux Trois has to be the main danger as she is ultra-consistent and comes off a second in the Non-Black Type Allez France Handicap over 2,400m at Turffontein last month.

Ryan Munger knows the filly well and he is back on board for this race. Being a Plate race, she does get her fillies’ allowance and that gives her an advantage over the colts. That same rule applies to Traveling Wilbury and She’s A Cracker so they too have to come into the reckoning.

It is quite awhile since Craig Zackey last rode the Lucky Houdalakis-trained filly, but he was in the irons on her debut when she finished second, and then again two runs later.

Muzi Yeni sticks with She’s A Cracker and she will carry just 51.5kg. However, it is worth noting that while she has two seconds, a third and a fourth in four runs, Robbie Sage’s charge has yet to win over 2,400m. Another to consider is Mike de Kock-trained Barak.

He was strongly fancied in a Pinnacle Stakes over 2,400m at Turffontein last time but could only finish fifth behind Imperial Ruby. He was coming back from a short break and could have been in need of the run.

Nathan Klink takes the ride.