Pot the eight ball in the Met

One of the interesting debates is whether the allowance for three-year-olds at this time of the season is a touch too generous. It does vary according to the distance and at this stage it is 5kg for a race over 1600m and 6kg in a race over 2000m.

The subject most recently reared its head after One Stripe won the L’Ormarins King’s Plate. Getting the 5kg advantage enabled him to score a most impressive victory over his elders and the deliberations continue as we move towards Saturday’s running of the Grade 1 World Sports Betting Cape Town Met over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth where three-year-old Eight On Eighteen has now been installed as the favourite to give trainer Justin Snaith and owner Nic Jonsson a hat-trick of victories in the race.

They won it with Jet Dark in 2023 and Double Superlative last year.

Courtesy of the 6kg allowance Eight On Eighteen comes in with just 54kg and looks the runner they will all have to beat. While many may point to the fact that not many three-year-olds have won this race, one must take into account that owing to the scheduling, not many competed in the event because the Cape Derby was scheduled to be run at the same meeting and was a much better option for their connection.

Of course, it takes a really good horse to win these Grade 1 races against the very best and this son of Lancaster Bomber looks to have that je ne sais quoi needed to achieve that. He is lightly raced, having run just six times for two wins, two seconds and two thirds, but one must remember his last two were against One Stripe over 1600m.

While he has yet to race beyond that trip and his ability to see out 2000m is unknown, it should be worth taking into account that in four of his starts he has produced the fastest 400m to finish, including his last race in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas when flying up to finish 1.25 lengths behind One Stripe.

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In a recent panel discussion there was confidence oozing from jockey Richard Fourie when asked if he could win the race. “Of course I can!” came the emphatic response.

And when asked who he made his dangers he replied: “I haven’t looked that far.”

He is drawn No 10 which also holds no fears for Fourie.

Some people also have argued that based on merit ratings Eight On Eighteen is well out at the weights. However, that merit rating does not look a true reflection of the horse’s ability.

After his win in the King’s Plate, One Stripe was raised to 132. Based on his 1.25-length second behind Vaughan Marshall’s charge, the current rating of 115 is way off the mark. Owner Jonsson also has another horse in the race in third favourite See It Again.

Sadly, this Michael Roberts-trained gelding has been disappointing in his last few starts but he has to be better than his current form. He did suffer a minor injury in the King’s Plate and we are hopefully going to see a better performance from this son of Twice Over with Piere Strydom back in the irons.

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Those wanting a bit of value could look at another Snaith runner in Future Swing. This five-year-old gelding has been highly consistent and ran well enough in the Grade 2 Premier Trophy last time. He finished just 1.20 lengths behind Rascallion and is now 1kg better off with all three who finished in front of him.

He was held up for 100m at a vital stage of that race and with Grant van Niekerk up from No 4 draw, he has to have a decent chance.

In spite of his disappointing run in the King’s Plate one cannot write off the chances of Hollywoodbets Durban July winner Oriental Charm. He came back from a five-month break to win the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes in style, and he may just have been feeling the effects in his second run after the layoff last time.

He will be better over this distance and the father and son team of Brett and James Crawford are in top form currently.

It is really going to be a great day for punters as not only do we have a 12-race card with three Grade 1 races and a number of other features, but there are massive betting opportunities. For a start, Races 6 to 12 are Hong Kong World Pool events which will enable horseplayers to bet into massive TAB pools.

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The bets available are Win, Place, Quinella, Exacta and Swingers. Then there are a number of other opportunities starting off with a R2-million Pick 6 carryover with the pool likely to reach R10 million.

The first leg comes up in Race 4 which is off at 13.35. There will also be R500 000 kicking off the Quartet Pool on the Met (Race 8) and that is likely to reach R2 million. There are also two BiPots (Races 2 to 7 and 7 to 12), as well as three Jackpots (Races 1 to 4, 5 to 8 and 9 to 12) with a R500 000 carryover to Jackpot Three, with a likely pool of R2 million.

The other two Grade 1 races on the card are Race 2, the Main Chance Farms Majorca Stakes over 1600m, and Race 7, the HKJC World Pool Cape Flying Championship over 1000m.

The first will give bettors a strong banker in Grade 1 Paddock Stakes winner Double Grand Slam, but she will be taking on Cape Fillies Guineas champion Fatal Flaw in what should be an entertaining clash.

Dyce is back in the Cape to defend his Cape Flying Championship title and is a strong fancy to repeat that victory with Piere Strydom back in the irons. However, that dash down the straight is always exciting and it is over in under a minute.