No doubt about Sirtain

The key to deciphering the outcome of Race 6 at the Vaal today, a MR 80 Handicap over 1000m on the Outside track, depends on whether one believes the handicapper has caught up with Sirtain.

After moderate performances in his first two runs the Mike de Kock yard decided to bring him back to sprints and fit a set of blinkers. The effect was immediate. In his next start the Australian-bred son of Not A Single Doubt raced clear of his opposition to beat That’s Life by 4.10 lengths.

He backed it up in his next start, keeping on well to beat Great Shaka by 1.10 lengths. Those two wins resulted in his merit rating rising to 78, which also incorporated the six-point rise given to all runners on 1 March. In his third start over 1000m Sirtain was narrowly beaten by Alpine Glacier, going down 0.30 lengths.

After that his rating went up another two points so he comes into this race running off a merit rating of 80. Did that last run indicate Sirtain had now reached his level or alternatively was it the fact he kept changing legs, as reported by jockey Callan Murray that cost him the race?

This race will surely answer that question because Sirtain will again be ridden by Murray and will again meet Alpine Glacier, this time on 0.5kg better terms. If he has reached his level then the pair should finish locked together. However, I believe Murray may well have offered an acceptable explanation and Sirtain might still have a slight edge on the handicapper.  

The merit rating system and the manner in which it is operated is often slammed by trainers and owners, but for a shrewd punter that could be a godsend. Sometimes one can find a runner that one believes is not correctly rated and that will help you find a nice winner at a big price.

That could well be the case with Roy Magner-trained All Night Flight. This five-year-old son of Noordhoek Flyer has been running in much stronger company and just three runs back he raced with a rating of 84. That has dropped three times since and he comes into this event running off a figure of 76.

In his last start, which was over 1200m, All Night Flight showed quite a lot of pace before fading slightly to finish a 3.50-length fifth behind Captain Chips. Raymond Danielson, who was in great form at Turffontein yesterday, takes the ride and this gelding should go very close off his lower merit rating.

– Jack Milner

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