No change to Oriental Charm’s merit rating

A horse that wins the venerable Green Point Stakes, a Grade 2 race and a beacon of excellence in Cape Town’s summer season, is usually seen as a progressive sort. The fact that the win came directly after a six-month layoff, that it completed a black-type hat-trick, and that the colt started at value odds of 6-1, would convince many a racing fan that this fellow was due a nudge up in merit rating (MR).

That didn’t happen.

Oriental Charm’s MR remains untouched after his impressive victory in the 2024 WSB Green Point at Kenilworth at the weekend.

The National Horseracing Authority (NHA) stated in a press release: “Oriental Charm remained unchanged on a rating of 125… Here it was third place finisher Sugar Mountain who was used as the line horse, leaving his rating unaltered at 116. In rating the race this way, first and second [Royal Aussie] finishers actually run below their official ratings of 125 and 124 respectively.”

Best method

Of course, as is often explained, the handicappers have to have a system of grading racehorses and the current MR system has been developed over many years and is possibly the best method there is.

But numbers are rigid, horses are flesh and blood, and humans make judgement calls. It is what it is.

Interestingly, Oriental Charm was only raised four points – from 121 to 125 – for his memorable victory off a low weight of 53kg in the 2024 Hollywoodbets Durban July.

The Crawford clan-trained colt first arrived in the higher reaches of MR after running a mere third – in the 2023 Cape Derby, behind Green With Envy and Beach Bomb – when he was catapulted 16 points, from an 87 to 113.

Correctly rated?

Another interesting observation is that renowned racing analyst Karel Miedema – whose “ability ratings” don’t correlate numerically with the NHA’s MRs – gave Oriental Charm an AR of 107 for the Green Point – exactly the same as his AR for winning the July.

This seems to suggest the two performances were indeed of much the same merit and Oriental Charm is currently correctly rated.

The colt’s galloping ability has also been under discussion due to bookmakers’ assessment of him in the 2025 WSB Cape Town Met ante-post betting market.

After Saturday’s Green Point result, Oriental Charm was shoved to the top of the boards and pegged at 4-1 by the big-race sponsor – ahead of earlier favourite See It Again and Green Point flopped favourite Green With Envy, at joint 6-1.

Turf Talk opinion

In a well-reasoned piece, Turf Talk newsletter questions whether Oriental Charm should be favourite for Cape Town’s premier race – to be contested in late January.

It says, “See It Again has the former well held on Hollywoodbets Durban July form,” adding, “Oriental Charm was 5kg better off than weight for age with the top-weighted See It Again when winning the July and he only beat him by 1.80 lengths.

“That is not to mention that he hampered See It Again as well and the latter would have otherwise finished considerably closer.

“The Met is run on weight for age terms, so it means Oriental Charm will need to have improved by 4kg to 5kg since the July to reverse form with See It Again.”

Many punters will have been turned off by See It Again starting as favourite for the recent Summer Cup in Joburg but only managing fifth place. However, as jockey Piere Strydom pointed out, his mount was giving chunks of weight to younger horses on an unfamiliar track.

With the Met contested at weight-for-age terms, things will be different. If Oriental Charm does justify the bookmakers’ current odds, he will surely need some urgent MR attention from the handicappers.