Negev weighted to win

That race was over 1200m on the sand and she had to concede 10.5kg to the winner. The Louis Goosen-trained filly returns to the Vaal sand track today to contest a Conditions Plate for fillies and mares over 1450m and this time she is undoubtedly the runner to beat.

Under the race conditions she is 2.5kg better off with Formation based on merit ratings and has a 3.5kg advantage over Magic Smoke. She carries just 52kg and will have the services of Marco van Rensburg.

The four-year-old daughter of Stronghold has raced twice on the sand. She finished unplaced on the first occasion but that was over 1000m in last year’s Sophomore Fillies 1000 and she probably found the distance a touch short.

Her problem last time was the weight rather than the course, but as she is named after a desert in Israel one would expect Negev to enjoy the sand. She should be a banker for the Place Accumulator.

Formation has to give her 10kg but St Gray’s runner stands out as the main danger. She absolutely coasted home on Emerald Cup day to win the Listed Emerald Fillies Handicap over the course and distance and was penalised the maximum 4kg for her 4.75-length victory over Dolomiti.

There should once again be very little to choose between Formation and Magic Smoke. Two runs back the latter beat Formation by 1.50 lengths over this track and trip but is now 2kg worse off. They did travel very quickly on that occasion and that suited Magic Smoke who was able to bide her time off the pace.

Jockey Piere Strydom, who rode her in that race and again in the Emerald Cup, feels the Fort Wood mare is better over 1600m and upwards.

Race 6 is a MR 98 Handicap over 1000m and in this event the value could lie with lightly weighted Stavinsky. He would probably prefer to run over 1200m but with just 52kg to carry the Leon Erasmus-trained runner should run well, as long as apprentice Akash Aucharuz can keep him in touch with the leaders.

Cape Winter won the Listed Hampton Handicap over the course and distance last month and must have a chance of scoring a double. He is not too sound but does have ability.

Hang Fire won a good race over 1200m last time but he generally is better over 1000m. The Brett Webber-trained runner loves the track and has record of four wins and seven places in 15 runs over the course and distance. Strydom takes the ride.