Nail-biting over heavily backed July candidate Winchester Mansion

One of the more enigmatic entries for the Hollywoodbets Durban July is Winchester Mansion, trained by Cape Town’s Brett Crawford.

The four-year-old vaulted up the ante-post betting for the July at Greyville on 1 July, after winning the Grade 3 Dolphins Cup Trial at the big race venue.

A month ago, Winchester Mansion was among the “name your price” July hopefuls, with just three wins to his name and one of those entries about whom people mutter “why do they bother?”

Winchester Mansion

Then he was gelded and his life changed – as it often does in such circumstances. Coming off a four-month recovery, he stepped out in the Daily News 1900 and attracted surprise support, starting at 6-1.

With plenty of cut in the ground, he gave winner Pacaya – a popular July entry – a run for his money.

The handicappers lumped four points onto his merit rating, but Winchester Mansion didn’t flinch, going out again and winning the 1800m Cup trial commandingly. The handicappers did flinch and whacked on nine more points.

In the meantime, Winchester Mansion had climbed from the ignominy of 50something-1 on the bookmaker’s boards to 9-1 third favourite. Current hot form and an obvious affinity for Greyville have an allure for the betting person.

Selectors of the July final field now face a problem – one of many – as they hadn’t included this horse anywhere on the marketing logs of “likely” runners they issue. It’s a tad bizarre that two entries of the top five in the betting – Winchester Mansion and Pacaya – are on the verge of not getting a place in the lineup because of so many other deserving cases.

Durban July inclusion?

Should Crawford’s charge be included in the final 18 to be announced next week?

After all, the two recent efforts that have punters dazzled were in very soft going, and the July is seldom muddy. Also, he took a while to rise in the ratings – partly due to slow-run races – and didn’t show the early class one associates with Grade 1 champions.

But, he clearly is in good form. And he does appear to have improved since castration – who will forget The Conglomerate suffering the unkindest cut only to storm home in the July? Also, the son of Trippi did well in last season’s winter series in Cape Town – a proving ground for the KwaZulu-Natal season in 12 months’ time.

One other factor, Winchester Mansion’s sudden emergence as a leading candidate has come since he moved from Cape Town to the Highveld and the care of Crawford’s son James at the stable’s Randjesfontein satellite yard. He hasn’t raced in his new home up north yet and has travelled down to the East Coast for his raids – which he’ll repeat for the July.

But there are plenty of promising horses around: does he deserve a July slot ahead of the likes of brave but older Nebraas, up-and-comer Billy Bowlegs or his Greyville 1900 conquerer Pacaya?

Trainer Mike de Kock regularly calls for a shake-up to the July selection criteria. His point this year is underlined by such conundrums. One of the old bones of contention is older, accomplished horses, well rated but not in peak form, versus the younger set, who haven’t quite proven themselves at the top level but well might.

Speaking of conundrums and betting moves, when De Kock announced international superstar jockey for his July runner Safe Passage, the money flooded in and last year’s third-placer was slashed from 10-1 to 7-1 in short order.

Soumillon sojourned in Cape Town for several weeks at Christmas after falling foul of stipes abroad for tipping another jockey from his mount. At the time, he said he was keen to give South Africa’s greatest race a try.

Given what got him into the dwang last year, he couldn’t be riding a better named beast.