Musings on ante-post odds for the Cape Derby and the July

Bookmakers have been giving Charles Dickens plenty of thought. They made a killing when the colt-of-the-moment was beaten by longshot Al Muthana in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate recently, but they’re determined punters won’t gain revenge via Candice Bass-Robinson’s three-year-old anytime soon.

Charles Dickens is quoted at 12-10 for the Cape of Good Hope Derby in a fortnight’s time – and ahead of final declarations for the race next week. At first glance it looks like a canny offer.

Inveterate value-seeking punters – of which there are more than the racing cohort cares to admit – will be put off, which means there might not be a plunge on the callow youth.

Temptation

Also, the son of Trippi has never raced over the 2000m of the Derby and there’ll be a hint of caution when his chances are assessed – especially after he was overhauled in the final strides of the 1600m King’s Plate.

Nevertheless, all racegoers love a champion and, with Mr Dickens being equated with the greatest names of the past, there will be plenty of players keen to get onto a glory trail. At 12-10, there’s has just enough profit margin to tempt the hard-headed wagerer, too.

Of course, if a big bet lands, the satchel men will be whirring crank handles pronto.

The bookies have also priced up on the 2023 Durban July on 1 July, with another interesting view on Charles Dickens. He’s at 33-10, four months and more before the country’s biggest race.

With a merit rating of 132 and the hoopla surrounding him, you’d expect the chestnut to be hot favourite. Yet that price appears to be a juicy morsel. Juicy like bait in a trap.

Eight challengers

Meanwhile, trainer Justin Snaith has, in the words of one scribe, “thrown the kitchen sink at Charles Dickens” in the Cape Derby – nominating eight challengers to Bass-Robinson’s superstar. With just 13 entries in all, clearly swarming tactics are to be deployed – like the “press” in football.

Actually, something similar might end up being a factor in the July.

The July first-entry deadline is way off, but World Sports Betting has already added five new names to its board since the first prices were chalked up for 55 “possibles”.

Jonsson horses

Three of the latecomers are from the Snaith yard, and all from the ownership of Nick Jonsson. This means someone has requested odds and probably placed bets on horses that weren’t in bookmakers’ initial reckoning.

The Jonsson horses in question are: Without Question, Mucho Dinero and Double Superlative.

The latter – impressive winner of the 2021 Grade 1 Cape Guineas – has been slotted in at 22-1. Now a four-year-old, he hasn’t been on a racetrack since early-May 2022 when he ran fifth in the KwaZulu-Natal Guineas.

The betting interest suggests he is recovering from his ailments and is catching the eye of someone somewhere.

We’ll get a chance to assess prospects of the other two “forgotten” candidates pretty soon – when they oppose young master Charles in the Derby. Without Question is 16-1, fourth favourite for that contest, and Mucho Dinero is a 25-1 chance.

BETTING

Cape of Good Hope Derby (25 February)

12-10 Charles Dickens
5-1 Rockpool
8-1 At My Command
16-1 Without Question
18-1 Itsrainingwilliam, King Regent
25-1 Mucho Dinero
28-1 Grinkov
35-1 Triple Time, Nevada King
50-1 See It Again
66-1 Innamore
80-1 Cosmic Event

Durban July (1 July)

33-10 Charles Dickens
7-1 Cousin Casey
8-1 Pomp And Power
10-1 Safe Passage
14-1 Rockpool, Puerto Manzano
16-1 East Coast
18-1 Rascallion, Sparkling Water, Royal Victory
20-1 Zapatillas, Shoemaker, Union Square
22-1 and upwards others