Mike de Kock’s Safe Passage disrupts the Durban July market

Disruption of a market is often a good thing in business, but what about racing? In the past few days, a horse called Safe Passage has thoroughly disrupted the betting market for the Hollywoodbets Durban July. Good or bad? Good if you want to back another entry at decent odds while the popular focus is elsewhere, but bad if you were hoping to get a decent price on Safe Passage himself.

The first development was the three-year-old, trained by Mike de Kock, winning the Daily News 2000 at Greyville in Durban on Saturday, beating race favourite and July favourite Pomp And Power rather convincingly. The July sponsor didn’t waste a moment in slashing Safe Passage’s big race odds from 14-1 to 6-1.

Next, the official handicappers pondered merit ratings of the DN2000 runners and decided the winner should be penalised by a full five points – from 117 to 122. This means Safe Passage is likely to carry 54kg in the July – 1kg more than his three-year-old male rivals. Members of the gelding’s new-found fan club were not fazed at all by this and wagered a bit more money, shortening him to 5-1.

Then the July officials released their second July log – a reflection of current thinking about the composition of the final 20-horse field. Safe Passage had been hoisted from 16^th to fourth in the much-debated “order of merit”. Prior to the DN2000, he’d not been guaranteed a starting slot in the July, but the Grade 1 victory handed him a golden ticket. So, more money went down and Hollywoodbets trimmed him to 7-2.

Before Saturday, Safe Passage’s claim to fame had been classy wins in the Grade 2 Dingaans and Grade 2 Gauteng Guineas and a short-head second to Red Saxon in the SA Classic, all at Turffontein – a record that would probably have got him a July invite but wasn’t enough to fully win over the punters and pundits. The Daily News tends to change minds.

Commenting before the race on his DN2000 chances, De Kock intimated his charge was not at peak racing fitness and might need the outing to sharpen up. On that expert assessment, Safe Passage will be an even better prospect in a month’s time – which might be a tad intimidating for connections of other July hopefuls.

But what if the current three-year-old crop is not the strongest?

Cape Derby winner Pomp And Power was adjudged the DN2000 line horse for handicapping purposes, so he stayed unchanged on a MR of 118. That means he is inferior to Safe Passage – under the complicated maths that determine these things. It also means both are better than the other four July candidates that finished behind them.

The bookies, who had Pomp And Power at 6-1 favourite before the weekend, have simply kept him on that peg – shouting out uncertainty.

Indeed, a fog of uncertainty has shrouded the July picture for many months. Early bookmaker odds were jittery and without direction. Now it seems the pencil men are trying to drive the market.

We need to remember the July is 200m longer than Saturday’s race. And all runners will be worked on, fitness-wise, over the next month.

Also, there the small matter of a bunch of older horses lying in wait: Queen’s Plate supremo Jet Dark, who’s likely to carry the 60kg top weight; defending July champ Kommetdieding; dual July winner Do It Again, in resurgent form; and Linebacker, who is overdue a big win.

There are others to consider, too.

BETTING

7-2 Safe Passage

6-1 Pomp And Power

9-1 Linebacker, Sparkling Water

12-1 Kommetdieding, Do It Again

14-1 Hoedspruit

16-1 Jet Dark, Zapatillas

20-1 Marina, Aragosta

25-1 Warrior

30-1 Waterberry Lane, Naval Guard

35-1 Russian Rock

45-1 Belgarion

50-1 and upwards the others