Louis can win Triple Crown

 Then there are others who make me laugh, some who make me annoyed and others who just leave me dumbstruck by their stupidity.

I get criticised for my behaviour when people don’t know any of the facts. Earlier this month I rode Trophy Wife in a race on the Turffontein inside track and was beaten by Mike Azzie-trained Moonlit Venice, ridden by apprentice Collen Storey. At one point in the race the winner ran into the hindquarters of my mount which turned my filly sideways. It was a severe incident and one has to react so it doesn’t happen again during the race. There were no words said afterwards, no reprimand for the kid in the jockey room, so I was quite amazed for the way I was criticised for the way I handled the situation.

Even Mike Azzie had something to say during his wining but subsequently he apologised to me for saying things before he had actually thought about it. I was stunned that such a small incident got blown up out of proportion when nothing actually happened, through no fault of my own.

The second incident was last Tuesday. After winning Race 2 aboard Across The Ice, I tried to give people an option about Jackodore, who I was riding later in the day. I noticed ion her last run on the turf that she started doing things she had never done before. When a horse shows different behavioural patterns it often indicates the horse won’t run in the same manner as it has done before. I was correct but then I get accused of all sorts of things.

The information trainers and jockeys give about their horses is free and for the good of the punters. It’s like looking a gift horse in the mouth. I’ve often lost a ride from a trainer or owner by giving an honest opinion of a horse’s chances. I don’t have the intention to hurt the owner or trainer but I feel it is more important to give a punter my honest opinion. But it has come back to bite me because when I do give my opinion and I’m right, I still get slammed.

There are some people who listen to my opinions, which I accept will not always be right, but I might have been able to save them some money on Thursday. I had a number of rides who, as always, were either top or near the top of the bookmakers’ boards, that I gave very little chance. For example, everyone was tipping Casha in Race 9 and I did not even make the call to try and get the ride.

I will continue giving my opinions because most of the feedback I receive, especially about this column, is very positive and I don’t see why most people suffer because of a few rotten eggs.

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Today is D-Day for Louis The King in his quest to win the SASCOC Triple Crown. What a great feat it would be if he could win the SA Derby and emulate Horse Chestnut. It would see his name written in the record books but at this stage of his career I could not compare him to Horse Chestnut. He was the best horse I’ve ever seen race in South Africa. I finished ridden second to him on five occasions and no matter what tactics I tried there was no way I could catch him. He had an amazing stride. In fact, it was a foot longer than a normal race horse. He would gallop at high speed, change legs and get into another gear.

I don’t see any reason why Louis can’t win. He looks as if he will stay 2450m and he definitely has the best form. I would consider banking him in all bets. But if you are worrying about him not staying, I will go with Alec Laird’s two — As You Like and Bouclette Top.

Mercado, my ride, has not been the distance, might not stay, looks outclassed and I would be over the moon to earn a stake cheque.

I ride Halve The Deficit in the President’s Champions Challenge. He has won three of his last four starts but unfortunately hasn’t beaten anything of this quality. I’m not expecting too much and would be happy with a place. Yorker seems the horse to beat and I will banker him in the Place Accumulator.

But there are others with form who also have a winning chance for the Pick 6. Those are Tellina and Wylie Hall. The other horse I would include is Pomodoro because if he found his best form he probably would beat this field. After his health complication he could slowly be getting to his best. We won’t know until that happens but it could be today.

Going back to Race 1, my first pick is Lockheed Jetstar. He seems a difficult character. I’ve ridden him before and he’s quite a puller. Unfortunately he has to be ridden from behind and sometimes gives away too much start. Because of that I feel the value could lie with Master Sabina.

Majmu will be very hard to beat in Race 2. She has probably the best form of any juvenile in Gauteng and I could just imagine what would happen if she jumps on terms. Every run will see her improve.

A horse who impressed me and is at 20-1 is Victoria Young. The form has been franked and I can only see a lot of improvement on that first run. She could be worth including in Exactas and Swingers.

I ride Tresco in Race 3 and I have pointed out on many occasions she is not up to his class of field. The fact she is carrying level weights puts her at a disadvantage. Once again, a place would be wonderful.

I make it a two-horse race between Espumanti and Cherry On The Top but I will banker Espumanti in the Place Accumulator.

In Race 4 I ride Lock Him Up. He won a good race first time out but unfortunately the form has not been franked. Horses who have run against winners and contested features are worth following and on that basis Banaadeer will be very hard to beat. He could be a Pick 6 and PA banker.

As these young horses improve all the time you could include Carry On Alice, who Sean Tarry has a high regard for, In the Pick 6.

I ride Copper Parade in the Computaform Sprint. He seems held on form against this type of opposition and once again a place cheque would be great.

The main contenders look to be Via Africa and Sharp Design as they are the best handicapped. I will put both in the PA. For the Pick 6 I will include Contador, and one of the better horses I have ridden in my career, Valberg. He left a huge impression on me but after every race he used to be distressed and it felt like he was falling over. Since then he has had a rest and I understand his breathing problems are sorted out, so it would not surprise me if he beats this field.

It is hard to fault Schiffer’s form, and she has beaten Via Africa she needs to be included.

I ride Mohave Princess in the SA Oaks. She didn’t finish that far behind Zephira in the SA Fillies Classic and could be the only danger. I will be trying my hardest to beat Zephira as I was under the impression I would ride her in the Oaks.

I will banker Zephira in the PA and might even do so in the Pick 6. In the Fillies Classic She battled to keep up with the pace but then ran on. For those who don’t want to bank Zephira, include Mohave Princess.

The Gold Bowl is quite a competitive race. It is interesting to note that in his last start, Savage Wind won in 4.39secs faster than Magic Smoke had won a race earlier. I wouldn’t read too much into it because it just shows pace can affect the time and naturally, the outcome. Even though there is the time discrepancy I am making my selection based on the quality of horse and I think Savage Wind, with the benefit of a light weight over this distance, is the horse to beat.

I would banker him in the PA and consider doing the same in the Pick 6. But if you want to go wider put in S’il Vous Plait and Storm Warning.

In Race 10 I’m riding Tiger Quest who is well handicapped in this field. I gave her a gallop the other day and she worked quite well but is more effective over 1000m and as she’s coming back from a rest, the extra 160m won’t be in her favour.

That is why I feel the winner will come from Welwitshcia, Honorine or She’s a Stunner.