Handicappers can’t catch Hawwaam, but pounce on Kilindini

Trainer Brett Crawford’s colt leaps from a MR of 99 to a new mark of 122.

By contrast, Hawwaam, just as convincingly triumphant in the day’s second feature race, the Grade 2 Premier Trophy, remains unchanged on 131.

In the bad old days – of just a few months ago – racing fans would be looking at these rulings and wondering if they might not be a tad inconsistent and arbitrary. No longer.

In one of its best moves of recent times, the National Horseracing Authority now releases a full explanation of the handicappers’ reasoning when the make merit rating changes.

The key to all adjustments is a “line horse”, a runner whose performance is assessed as consistent with ability and form, with the rest of the field being rated against that performance.

Here is the NHA’s take on Saturday’s feature races:

Cape Guineas (Grade 1)

Kilindini has seen his merit rating jump from 99 to 122 after he ran out an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Cape Guineas over 1600m at the Kenilworth summer course on Saturday 21^st December.  This colt was making his first start in a Feature race of any description and was simply a cut above his opposition in a race that many consider to be South Africa’s premier three-year-olds event.

The Handicappers were of the opinion that 5^th placed Eden Roc was the appropriate line horse to use, in the belief that he would have run better in a Grade 1 Guineas than when he was beaten further, after travelling keenly in the early stages, in the Grade 2 Dingaans at his most recent start.  As such, Eden Roc was used to his mark of 114 when assessing the Guineas, having only run to a level of 110 in the Dingaans.  As such, Eden Roc’s rating remains unchanged on 114.

Runner-up Viva Rio was raised from 108 to 118, while third placed Macthief is up from 106 to 115.  Fourth placed Wild Coast was upped from 96 to 114, while 6^th placed Viking Moon is up from 105 to 109, which makes him equal to 7^th finisher Silver Operator and 8^th placed King Of Gems.  Both of this latter pair ran to their marks in the Guineas, as did 9^th placed Captain Tatters, so effectively all three become line horses as well.  Interestingly, Silver Operator and Captain Tatters have almost exactly replicated the form they showed in the Grade 3 Cape Classic on 26^th October.

Two horses were given a ratings drop, with Putontheredlight going from 110 to 107 and Rock The Globe from 104 to 103.

Premier Trophy (Grade 2)

Hawwaam remains unchanged on a rating of 131 after his fluent success in the Premier Trophy over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday.  The Handicappers were of the view that Hawwaam himself made for the best line horse in a race where several of the runners were returning from a break and which is essentially a lead-up race to the major all-aged events of the Cape summer season, and accordingly his rating remains untouched.

Only three changes were made after this race, with runner-up Bunker Hunt going up from 120 to 122, while Doublemint is up from 114 to 116.   The solitary drop was to Tap O’Noth, who was cut from 119 to 116 to make him the equal for now to fourth placed Doublemint.

Victress Stakes (Grade 3)

Snapscan has had her rating upped from 105 to 118 after she showed a remarkable turn of acceleration and ran out a very easy winner of the Grade 3 Victress Stakes for fillies and mares over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday.  Here, it was runner-up Miyabi Gold who was deemed to be the best line horse to use when assessing the race and as such her rating remains unchanged on 115.

The winner aside, the only change made to the rating of any horse in this race was to fourth placed Shamrock Wind, who goes up from 105 to 107 and is accordingly more highly rated than 5^th placed Star Fighter, who remains on 106.

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