Form trumps merit rating in new July Log

Recent form has played an important role in compilation of the all-important Second Hollywoodbets Durban July Log – an official indicator of the “probable” field for Africa’s greatest race on 6 July.

Main Defender, Hluhluwe, Mucho Dinero and Hotarubi have all fallen in the standings, as adjudicated by racing operator Gold Circle’s expert panel, following disappointing recent performances.

The latter three have fallen out of the top 20 entirely. Mucha Dinero was once the ante-post favourite for the July, while Hluhluwe was a 16-1 shot at one stage.

Main Defender slips

Late entries Double Superlative and Flag Man have usurped two spots in the top 20, while eye-catching wins for Future Swing, Oriental Charm and Silver Sanctuary have seen them elevated.

Cape Guines champion Snow Pilot, originally among the favoured few, has been scratched following a bad last in the weekend’s Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge.

Main Defender, who was in second position on the First Log, issued a month ago, has slipped right down to 10th place – despite maintaining his lofty 131 merit rating. The gelding’s only outing in the interim was in the 1600m Gold Challenge, for which he started as 5-2 favourite but finished in seventh place, 5.40 lengths behind winner Dave The King.

The panel will also have been influenced by the fact that Main Defender has never been tested over more than 1600m, whereas the July is a different kettle of fish at 2200m.

See It Again still tops

Last year’s July runner-up See It Again remains in the No 1 spot despite the official handicappers docking him a MR point this week. The wise men snipped the colt to 131 following his encouraging comeback third place in the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge, after a four-month break. He will be assigned the top weight of 60kg in the July.

In second spot on the log is Joburg Summer Cup winner Royal Victory, with an MR of 125.

Cape Town Met victor Double Superlative slots in at No 4 after his surprise supplementary entry for the July. The five-year-old comes out of a short-lived retirement to stud to contest a Pinnacle Stakes race at Greyville on Saturday – likely his sole prep run before the big one.

Flag Man got a whopping 34-point penalty after daring to run a close second to ruling July favourite Green With Envy in the Daily News 2000. His supplementary entry sees him instantly plonked in sixth spot on the log.

Meanwhile, there is likely to be more heated debate than usual about the bottom end of the log – and about the final line-up. It looks awfully competitive down there, with difficult subjective decisions having to be made.

THE LOG:

1 See It Again (4C) Michael Roberts 131
2 Royal Victory (4G) Nathan Kotzen 125
3 Winchester Mansion (5G) Brett Crawford
4 Double Superlative (5H) Justin Snaith
5 Green With Envy (3C) Dean Kannemeyer 127
6 Flag Man (3G) Gareth van Zyl 126
7 Dave The King (4G) Mike de Kock 127
8 Cousin Casey (4C) Sean Tarry 123
9 Oriental Charm (3G) Brett Crawford 121
10 Main Defender (3G) Tony Peter 131
11 Purple Pitcher (3C) Robyn Klaasen 120
12 Royal Aussie (4G) Justin Snaith 124
13 Barbaresco (3G) Johan Janse van Vuuren 122
14 Future Swing (4G) Justin Snaith 110
15 Master Redoute (5G) Andre Nel 115
16 Without Question (4G) Justin Snaith 120
17 Silver Sanctuary (3F) Mike de Kock 116
18 Frances Ethel (3F) Brett Crawford 118
19 Shoemaker (4G) Mike de Kock 110
20 Son Of Raj (4G) Tony Peter 119

NEXT FIVE IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER:

Aragosta (5G) Mike de Kock 118
Hluhluwe (3G) Justin Snaith 116
Hotarubi (3G) Sean Tarry 116
Meridius (4G) Tony Peter 113
Mucho Dinero (4g) Justin Snaith 110