Equus Horse of the Year gong going down to the wire

Speedy filly Captain’s Ransom is a clear leader in the gallop for Equus Horse of the Year honours. The only likely challenge is from star colt Jet Dark. But the latter does have better stamina credentials and there are still two weeks to go before the much-prized statuette is handed over.

This week, more than 44% of the vote in a popular poll on Sporting Post’s website had Captain’s Ransom as the worthy winner of the annual award, with Jet Dark on 24%, a tie between the two on 21%, Durban July winner Sparkling Water on 9% and Cape Town Met champ Kommetdieding tailed off last.

Bookmakers have refrained from running an Equus book, but one would guess that Captain’s Ransom would be about 1-3 and Jet Dark at evens.

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The SP poll is, of course, simply a gauge of popular opinion and the actual Equus Awards are decided via a more complex process.

Interestingly, though, this year’s Equus Awards do have a public vote element – for the first time. Previously, the awards were adjudicated entirely by an “expert panel” of well-known racing people.

To try to bring the Equus Awards – often called the Oscars of South African horse racing – more in line with overseas trends, officials have adopted a scoring system similar to that used for the UK’s Cartier Awards. For the 2021/22 season, which ended on 31 July, there will be three components to the judging: a straight points table, the expert panel opinion and a public vote. Each component counts for a third of the weighting.

The public poll was given a ludicrously short window – five days, from Monday to Friday this week – and is already all done and dusted. The Equus website says only about 360 votes are expected, not surprisingly given the limited timeframe. It seems faulty reasoning to accord such a small number of votes a full third of the assessment.

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On the points table, Jet Dark is the leader, on 152 points, four ahead of Captain’s Ransom on 138. The other two nominations, Kommetdieding and Sparkling Water, are on 108 and 107 respectively.

This might leave the panel in the difficult position of, possibly, feeling they are obliged balance the equation and not necessarily opt for their first choice.

The points table is calculated on a sliding scale of what are considered the most important races in the country. Six Grade 1 weight-for-age contests, called “Super Grade 1s”, get 48 points for a win and 24, 12 and six points for places. These are the Cape Town’s Queen’s Plate, Joburg’s Horse Chestnut Stakes and Premier’s Champions Challenge and Durban’s Gold Challenge and Champions Cup.

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The Durban July and other WFA Grade 1s get 40, 20, 10 and five points, while all other Grade1s, including fillies and mares contests, accrue 32, 16, eight and four points. And so on down the black type scale.

The panel members’ choice between the two leaders is a tough one. Jet Dark had two Grade 1 victories in the season, in the Queen’s Plate and the Champion’s Cup (plus a second place in the Durban July). Captain’s Ransom had four Grade 1 triumphs, including in the SA Fillies Sprint and the Mercury Sprint.

Who’s be an expert?

The brave souls who’ve accepted the job are Gold Circle boss Graeme Hawkins, former handicapper Ken Nicol, TV presenter and jockeys’ agent Deez Dayanand and commentators Rouvaun Smit and Nico Kritsiotis.

The experts have another couple of weeks to mull their choices in multiple categories and, most importantly, the Horse of the Year. Do they side with cold, hard stats or 300-odd faceless online voters?

The swish Equus Awards gala dinner is on 24 August.