Double take over an unlikely big-race comeback

Changes to the Hollywoodbets Durban July picture have been kaleidoscopic in recent days.

The biggest surprise has been the sudden appearance on the scene of 2024 Cape Town Met champion Double Superlative.

Some of us thought we were reading year-old news when we saw that name on the list of first entries for the R2-milllion Grade 1 Gold Challenge to be run at Greyville on 8 June.

After his 33-1 shock victory in the Met in late January, it was announced that Double Superlative, a five-year-old entire, was being retired to stud. After all, it had taken him 16 months to battle back from serious injury to claim the greatest prize in Western Cape racing and the gallant hero was due a more interesting career on a farm.

Stallion value

However, owner Neil Jonsson and trainer Justion Snaith have since revealed that, after a break, Double Superlative was still in good galloping nick, prompting a rethink about his immediate future.

They asked themselves: Why not have a bash at the Durban July, and perhaps the Champions Cup a month later, with the Gold Challenge as a stepping-stone? Good performances in those three races might add to Double Superlative’s stallion value.

Jonsson also said the horse’s Met-winning partner, British all-weather track champion jockey Danny Muscutt, had already been booked for Double Superlative in the July.

Another surprise this week was the announcement that the only female horse to make it onto the First July Log of “probable” runners, Frances Ethel, was being exported to the US by owners Team Valor and would not race locally again.

Three-year-old Frances Ethel, trained by Brett Crawford at his Turffontein satellite yard, has won four of six starts – notably the Bridget Oppenheimer SA Oaks over 2450m at Turffontein – and finished fourth in last weekend’s Grade 1 Tabgold Woolavington 2000 at Greyville.

In the latter, she carried 57.5kg off a merit rating of 118, the same weight as the winner and fellow sophomore Silver Sanctuary, who has a MR of 116.

Silver Sanctuary, surprising to some, did not make it onto the First July Log, which is compiled by a selection panel at operator Gold Circle.

Interestingly, the National Horseracing Authority handicappers decided that Silver Sanctuary would not get a merit increase for her Grade 1 triumph and would be their “line horse” for adjudicating all runners’ performances in the race.

So, she stays on 116 but might be promoted onto the next July Log for form considerations. There is no official guideline on female runners in the July, but there usually is at least one.

Merit adjustments

The handicappers made no mention of 118-rated Frances Ethel, who finished 1.65 lengths off the winner.
In their deliberations, they placed much weight on the Woolavington’s race pace, declaring it “very sedate”.

By contrast, the other 2000m race on the day, the Grade 1 Daily News 2000, with male horses, was 2.17 seconds faster – and there were some dramatic merit adjustments.

The four-point hike for odds-on winner Green With Envy did not please the colt’s connections, who lodge an appeal. Trainer Dean Kannemeyer’s fast-rising star remains the ante-post favourite for the Durban July but has been eased slightly to 3-1 in the big-race betting as a result of him possibly having to carry more weight than had been anticipated.

Speaking of the July odds, Flag Man’s sensational second place in the Daily News 2000 saw his Durban July price plumet from 125-1, when he was supplemented into the race a fortnight ago, to 10-1. This is despite him being nowhere near the First July Log – and despite this week’s gob-smacking 34-point hike in his merit rating.