Dean has a winning Gold Cup ticket

The Hot Ticket has been priced up as the 7-2 favourite for the R1.25-million marathon and Kannemeyer is not so quietly confident about the chances of his charge.

“I always said you would see the best of Hot Ticket as a late four-year-old,” said Kannemeyer. “I believe he is the best stayer in the country. He’s earned his stripes and he’s earned top weight but you do have to respect those stayers floating around at the bottom of the weights.

“He has done everything asked of him and the only thing that can stop him is the handicapper.”

Hot Ticket won the Grade 2 Gold Vase over 3000m on Durban July Day and Wavin’ Flag and Wild One both got within a neck of him. They now have a 0.5kg pull and over this distance, that is enough to turn the result around. However, Kannemeyer says jockey Karl Neisius admitted he moved too early in the Gold Vase.

“We were always concerned the Greyville straight would be too short so Karl said he had a handful coming into the straight so he decided to go. He couldn’t believe how quickly the horse hit the front and it’s no wonder he tired a little at the end,” said Kannemeyer.

The other worry is the pace. “We obviously would like a fast pace but that could be out of our hands.”

The weight is a concern as no horse has won the Gold Cup with 60kg on his back. But then no European team had ever won the FIFA Soccer World Cup on the American side of the Atlantic – until Germany did so two weeks ago.

His key opposition could come from an old rival in Paddy O’Reilly. The Mike Stewart-trained runner is another genuine stayer who has record of two wins and three places in seven starts over the distance. One of his unplaced races was in this event last year. However, he lost ground at the start and did well to finish fifth behind Jeppe’s Reef.

In February Paddy O’Reilly finished a 3.5-length second to Hot Ticket in the Chairman’s Cup over 3200m at Kenilworth and, taking into account the 0.5kg overweight put up by jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe, the seven-year-old son of Dynasty is 3kg better off. That should bring them closer together.

Paddy O’Reilly has only raced once since then and that was in the Listed Glenlair Trophy over 3200m at Fairview. Carrying 64kg, he lost two lengths at the start but still managed to finish a 0.50-length second behind Crown Of Gold.

Those who follow Western Cape racing will know that Stewart and Fayd’Herbe have a remarkable strike rate and this combination deserves respect. He is drawn No 2 and if he manages to jump on terms, will trouble Hot Ticket. “He is well and has been in Durban for three weeks,” said Stewart. “We have a good draw and a great jockey and he stays all day so we are in with a winning chance.”

Wavin’ Flag has been knocking on the door and a big win cannot be far off. He was motoring home in the Gold Vase and finished just behind Hot Ticket. The 0.5kg could make a difference and trainer Brett Crawford believes his charge will appreciate the extra 200m. “He should love it! Hot Ticket has already proven himself and he is a top stayer but a lot of horses were finishing hard at him. With that weight I think there will be a lot of horses giving him a hard time in the final 200m.”