Bias on wet tracks varies

We are in the middle of the rainy season and the wet weather affects various courses in different ways.

Today we are racing at Turffontein and hopefully the track is not saturated as that could influence the chances of some horses, especially down the straight. If you stood at the top of the straight looking towards the winning post you will notice that the inside (lower draws) is definitely lower than the outside (high draws).

Under normal conditions there is not much of a bias but when we get rain it clearly suits outside horses as gravity takes its course and the water will be drawn towards the lowest point.

Therefore the outside will dry quicker which creates the bias.

Often when we’ve had rain and we are racing around the turn we move to the outside when we come into the straight. That is the norm at Turffontein but at the Vaal it has been more variable and the bias seems to keep changing.

On Thursday at the Vaal there were certain horses who won all over the track but in general the majority were winning down the outside. If you go back to the Grand Heritage meeting I was drawn right on the outside and decided to stay there and could not find a place. So why does it change?

That might be because they have divided one track into two and often the inside track will overlap with the outside and vice versa. So down the centre, the points where the tracks overlap, one would think it would be firmer with them racing there more often but too much racing cuts up that section of the track and leaves runners racing on that patch at a disadvantage.

By the first race on Thursday there had been so much rain at the Vaal that we battled to find parking with all the water on the ground so naturally the racing was difficult at the beginning as the course was saturated. Fortunately, the weather cleared and that allowed us to finish the meeting.

Race 1 at Turffontein today is a Juvenile Plate and here Van Halen looks a hard horse to beat as on debut he won by 7.75 lengths. That experience should give him more of an advantage against some of the unraced runners. The fact he also had betting support must show he has some ability. His danger could be Marcus Attilius who won his only start but you need to have a look at any support for first timers.

Race 2 is a work riders’ event and the horses I rode last time out, Written, looks very hard to beat. Last time she ran over 1800m and the pace was so diabolically slow, I struggled to stop her overracing. Now she is drawn No 1 and coming back in distance in a weaker field. On the distance alone it will be a quicker pace, so therefore she should settle better and should be too good for the opposition.

She must be a banker in the BiPot.

Race 3 is another Juvenile Plate and here it might be better to take note of the betting. The Spies yard has five runners and you have an unraced filly bred by Frankel who was an absolute champion.

I can only go on the raced runners and my selections are Miss Boomerang, Free And Easy and Queen Of The Dance. I will go with Miss Boomerang and Free And Easy for the Place Accumulator.

Race 4 is a Maiden Plate and quite a tricky affair as it contains a lot of lightly raced runners. My first selection is Nightwatchman but he’s coming back slightly in distance. He finished fourth, beaten only 2.50 lengths and can only improve.

His danger could be my ride, Left Hook, who last time had a shocking draw but this time we have pole position. He still managed to finish second but there have been numerous runners from that form line and still no winner.

For the PA those two should be adequate. For the Pick 6 you might have to include Timcat who has also had one run, and the highest rated horses, The Bee Eff Gee and Ghost Rider.

There are other runners who attracted betting on their first starts – Mighty Gemini and Shadow Man – so take note of any further betting support.

Race 5 is a fillies and mares handicap and tough to find a winner. A horse like Tambalang has run against horses who have won feature races and with the turnover in weights Pennington Sands has to be a huge factor.

Those are the two main runners and need to be included in the PA because even though it is a small field it is quite competitive.

I ride Sabina’s Dynasty who is well held by Pennington Sands on a couple of runs back and this field is a lot stronger than the opposition she ran against last time when I rode her. She did win well, however, and I’m hoping she’s on the upgrade and can improve enough to beat the other two.

Include all three in the Pick 6 but if you want to go further then add Flichity By Farr and Samarra.

Race 6 is a Stakes race and it usually favours your top rated horse and in this case that honour goes to my ride, Lion’s Emblem. Unfortunately his form is in and out but he must be in with a chance. On this occasion the majority of horses should finish very close together on current form. Therefore I’m leaning towards the younger horses with more chance for improvement to take the honours. They are Inn A Million, Sess, Ali Bon Dubai and Just Cruised In.

I rode Ali Bon Dubai last time and over 2000m the slow run-race wasn’t in his favour.  Over this distance and a faster-run race, he could easily come out on top.

Those four mentioned should be good enough for the PA and for the Pick 6 include as many as your pocket can afford.

Race 7 is the Grade 3 Tommy Hotspur Handicap and I found it almost impossible to make an outright selection. Therefore, for the Pick 6 you have to include as many as you can. This is a big field and if the track is rain-affected the draw could play a huge part, which means look to the high draws. They are Champagne Haze, Pure Blonde, Greasepaint and Sporting Monarch.

If not rain-affected the young Mujallad could be the main improver. They could be your Place Accumulator horses.

I’m riding Angel’s Power who must have a chance on his best form but I’m not sure which Angel’s Power will turn up on the day.

Race 8 is another fillies and mares handicap which is also impossible to assess. My first choice is my ride, Inyanga, but she is drawn No 1 and that could work against her if it rains. So consider stable companion Madam Secretary and Onamission.

For the PA go with the two Azzie-trained fillies, Madame Secretary and Inyanga. For the Pick 6 include Onamission, and if you want to go wider, Regal Graduation and She’s Foxy.

Race 9 is a handicap and I’m often reluctant to select horses who have just won maidens but on this occasion Hero’s Honour and Manhattan Cocktail could make massive improvement.

For the PA add Trip To Troy to be on the safe side. That should also get you through the Pick 6.

I’m riding Zeal And Zest who is coming back in distance and I’m just hoping he runs in the places. A win would be a bonus.