Art of the July is more Pollock than Hopper right now

It is said the 2023 Hollywoodbets Durban July picture is emerging, with less than two months to go to the country’s biggest horse race. However, it must be said that the picture looks more like something daubed by abstract impressionist Jackson Pollock than a coherent realist work by Edward Hopper.

At the first declaration stage this week, 49 of the 60 first entries stood their ground. Out came big names such as Red Saxon, Linebacker and Golden Ducat. No supplementary entries were received for the R5-million contest – though some punters might have hoped for an extra horse or two to come in and provide some recognisable brushstrokes.

Events of the weekend saw the July picture losing some of the little definition it had, as paint was splashed about erratically.

See It Again

Ruling July favourite at the time, Cousin Casey, ran below expectations in the WSB Guineas at Greyville, starting as 11-2 second favourite but being obliterated by Charles Dickens (5-10 favourite). Second in the Guineas was 20-1 shot See It Again, who finished two lengths off the superstar – defying a notion that 1600m would be too short for him.

Second favourite in the July before Saturday was Safe Passage, but he ran a shocker in the Drill Hall Stakes, finishing last, 15 lengths off classy winner Trip Of Fortune.

Adding detail to a corner of the July canvas was the impressive victory of Without Question in the Variety Club Stakes at Kenilworth in Cape Town.

The upshot was See It Again leapt to the top of the July betting boards, Without Question zoomed up to second slot, and Cousin Casey and Safe Passage were relegated a few notches. But, with mercurial swings in sentiment and the shortest price being 6-1, it’s crystal clear that the picture is far from clear.

Final official ‘qualifier’

This coming weekend might clarify things – or turn it into a surreal landscape a la Salvador Dali. The Greyville 1900 on Saturday is traditionally seen as a July pointer and is the final official “qualifier” for the big one. Eleven of the 12 runners are July hopefuls, so we can expect a battle deluxe as they vie for that coveted invitation.

Topweight Rascallion, with a merit rating of 122, is sure to make the July final field, so this serves mainly as a prep run – and, with 62kg aboard, the five-year-old will find it tough going against younger horses with light weights.

Lightly raced four-year-old Quasiforsure has been attracting a fair bit of interest after a successful Cape summer sojourn and a good win back home in Durban in a Pinnacle Stakes contest three weeks ago. He has won five of eight starts and, with 56kg to carry, might be in the reckoning – if he can stay the 1900m he’s never tried before.

Quasiforsure was narrowly beaten over 1600m at Kenilworth by Pacaya, another four-year-old who is being tested over ground for the first time. Whoever stays, gets the July nod, perhaps.

Saturday’s Greyville meeting marks the arrival in KwaZulu-Natal of the powerhouse string of champion trainer-in-waiting Justin Snaith, whose eight July entries include Pacaya and fellow 1900 runner One Way Traffic – not to mention dual July hero Do It Again who has his seasonal warm-up in in Race 4, a Pinnacle Stakes.

Get out the paints, brushes and easel?

JULY BETTING

6-1 See It Again
8-1 Without Question
10-1 Rascallion, Pomp And Power, Cousin Casey, Safe Passage
16-1 Quasiforsure, Pacaya, Son Of Raj, Rain In Holland, Dave The King
20-1 Zapatillas, Puerto Manzano, Billy Bowlegs, Hoedspruit
25-1 Anfields Rocket, Rockpool, One Way Traffic, Silver Darling
33-1 Saartjie, Jimmy Don
40-1 and upwards the others