Al Sahem can hit bull’s eye

There are quite a few experts who believe that good fortune plays a bigger part in winning the Vodacom Durban July than talent.

Duncan Howells is the only KwaZulu-Natal-based trainer to have runners in tomorrow’s R4.25-million race over 2200m at Greyville and he has to deal with the course conditions on almost a daily basis.

“I know as a trainer how difficult it is to win a race of this nature. It’s an argy-bargy race and none of the other jockeys will do your horse any favours. The racetrack has changed and you need a lot of luck – you need a lot of things to go your way.”

Many believe the draw is massive yet last year the first six past the post were drawn 12 and upwards, the winner – The Conglomerate – coming from the widest draw of all.

The next issue is the ability of the three-year-olds. This group are seen as the future of South African racing and are on the cusp of turning four. The general impression this year is that they are decent and could be rated around 1kg lower than they should be.

With the exception of injured Heavenly Blue, the two outstanding runners have been Edict Of Nantes – winner of the Grade 1 Investec Cape Derby and Daily News 2000 – and Al Sahem, winner of the Grade 1 SA Derby and a neck runner-up in the Daily News.

With Sean Tarry-trained Al Sahem now 0.5kg better off, that puts the two very close together and this is where luck could make the difference.

The key for Al Sahem could be the start as he jumps from pole position. If S’manga Khumalo is unable to hold his position the Silvano colt could get cut off by horses moving across to overcome their wider draws. That is a concern for Tarry.

“It’s a tricky draw because he’s a lazy horse and he may not be able to hold his position. I would be happier closer to No 20 than the rail. We’ve got two factors in our favour – the extra distance and he’s now seen Greyville.”

Edict Of Nantes is drawn No 13 but trainer Brett Crawford does not see it as an issue. “I will leave the tactics to Anton Marcus. He won a good race in the Daily News 2000, his second run since arriving in Durban and I was very happy after the gallop.”

He has drifted marginally in the betting but that’s not much of a concern.

The fact Marcus is prepared to get his weight down to 54kg for the ride speaks volumes and he would not do it unless he believed he had a good chance of picking up a record fi _ h Durban July victory.

Of the four-year-olds Howells and Justin Snaith look to have the best runners. Ten Gun Salute proved he had benefited from gelding after winning the Betting World 1900 and carries 2.5kg less. Muzi Yeni takes the ride.

Piere Strydom will also be looking for a fifth July win and It’s My Turn could do it for him. This Dynasty gelding ran fourth last year and carries the same weight. Strydom has won his last two Durban Julys – on Pomodoro and The Conglomerate – from the widest possible draw and will have to overcome No 17 this time if It’s My Turn is to win.

Anthony Delpech is the third jockey who is looking for a fi _ h July victory and he rides Nightingale.

This is a top filly who is getting better with age and could well upstage the boys.

She is well drawn at No 6 and is trained by Candice Bass Robinson, the only woman trainer in the field.