Abercrombie should prove much too hot

He raced against the best of the three-year-old generation and his efforts including a placed effort in the Derby. Entered here in a modest Novice Plate, Betting World have predictably priced him up a hot 7-10 favourite.

Trainer Mike Bass needs to get his charge going again for upcoming feature races and though this 1600m race is a bit on the short side, he reports that the gelding is doing well so is expected to go close.

Despite his talent (he has a merit rating of 102), Abercrombie has only one career win to his name and was reported to have made a respiratory noise last time. A sluggish starter when reluctant to get into the fray, there are a few knocks against this temperamental odds-on shot.

Punters will need to decide if the price still represents a fair reflection of his chances. But given the difficulty of the surrounding handicap races, he is bound to be a common banker in most exotic perms.

If the favourite stubs his toe, Royal Folly or Disco Al may take advantage. Both return from rests, have adaptable racing styles either going handy or producing strong finishes from off the pace. Their career records are similar too – a single win from 12 starts.

Royal Folly’s best performance was a narrow defeat when powering home behind well-performed Half Moon Hotel in a MR 88 Handicap, which represents particularly sound form.

Disco Al is a tricky ride – requiring hold-up tactics – but he has done creditably in MR 86 events, finishing close to doughty stayers Born To Be Wild and Tippuana Moon. Such performances are significant levels below Abercrombie’s achievements.

On well-exposed lines of form, the Bass runner is just a few lengths inferior to Graded winners Silvano’s Jet, Cape Town Noir and Vercingetorix.

Four-year-old, Told You So took 11 runs to win a Maiden Plate, which does not usually inspire confidence. Since then though, the Mogok gelding has produced good closing sectionals in handicap company and is obviously relishing the prevailing wet conditions in the Cape.

A repeat of his run behind Shishangeni could plausibly see him running a place.

Three-year-olds Manievic and Roman Manner won maiden races on their last outings and look scopy types with potential. They are hard to assess at this early stage of their careers but it seems highly unlikely they can compete with well-handicapped Abercrombie.

It shapes up as Abercrombie’s race to lose – though wary horseplayers not totally convinced about the colt’s credentials may choose to add Royal Folly in a back-up role on some tickets.