A bluffer’s guide to merit rating

In golf, players of modest ability can compete against – and beat – opponents who are a lot better at the game. The handicap system – based on players’ scoring history over a long time – allows the happy hackers to play a few extra shots in their endeavour to get the small ball into that little hole.

In horse racing, the handicap is the weight each horse is allotted to carry. The better the horse, the more pudding it has to lug around the racecourse relative to the opposition in a particular race.

Extra weight is either carried in “live” form – a jockey of the correct weight – or in “dead” form – lead weights in saddle slots to make up the allotted mass.

Most racing fans know this basic stuff, but surprisingly few know much about how official handicappers come to determine a horse’s prowess.

And those that do know the rules are seldom in agreement with the handicappers – or even among themselves. It’s one of the most fiercely debated things in racing.

Handicapping is designed to allow as many horses as possible a chance to win – for the benefit of owners and to provide an even contest that encourages betting.

So, a handicapper’s success is measured by how closely bunched the field finishes a race.

Of course, not all races are handicaps. There are “plate” events, in which every runner carries the same weight; there are weight-for-age races, in which older horses carry more on a regulated scale, and there are “conditions” races, which have idiosyncratic weighting.

This is where knowledge of handicapping comes in handy for punters, as naturally talented horses can have a huge advantage at level weights or WFA.

It’s a hellish complex business that bemuses even regular punters.

In recent months, the South African Horseracing Authority has been on a transparency initiative about its weighting system – or merit rating, as it’s known.

Each week, in an effort to keep everyone in the loop, the handicap team publishes a breakdown of its thinking as it adjusts merit ratings of various horses following their performances in feature races.

This might not stop arguments among the cognoscenti, but it at least tries to break down barriers of suspicion between racing’s suits and the public.

But how many average punters can decipher these press releases is a moot point. Most simply know if a horse wins or places its merit rating rises; and poor performance sees a drop.

Merit rating is an assessment of a horse’s innate ability. Performance in its first three runs sees it given its first MR – based on quality of the opposition faced and many other variables such as barrier draw, going, luck in running, pace of the race, relative maturity, lengths of layoffs from racing, suitability of the race distance, and others.

These judgments are further measured against two things: “drag effect” and a “line horse”.

Drag effect is the acknowledgment that it is more difficult to carry weight the further the equine athlete has to gallop. The rule of thumb for this is that every 1kg carried slows down a horse by one length over 1600m.

The line horse – against which all other runners are assessed – is selected on the basis of his or her consistency in the past and on the basis of having run close to his or her MR on the day in question.

This multitude of factors go into the mix, numbers are crunched and the handicappers emerge with their refreshed assessment of all runners in a particular race.

Trainers might be delighted, not because their horse has risen in the prowess standings but because it hasn’t. Ancient racing wisdom advises one to move in elevated circles but to keep one’s horses in the lowest of company.

More often, the connections will take issue with an MR upgrade. They can lodge an appeal, which is heard by an independent tribunal that interrogates the MR procedure, including how the line horse was chosen. Sometimes the appeal is upheld, sometimes not.

With all that in mind, here’s the handicappers’ view of Sunday’s Michaelmas Handicap in Durban:

“BLACKBALL has had his rating raised from 103 to 107 following his fluent success in the Listed Michaelmas Handicap over 1900m at Greyville (turf track).

“The handicappers opted to rate this race the lowest way as some of the competitors were returning from layoffs and deemed to be more effective over further distances.  Consequentially, 2^nd placed PATHS OF VICTORY was used as the line horse and as such PATHS OF VICTORY’s rating remains unchanged as does that of 3^rd placed WEALTHY, who was only a neck further adrift of the runner-up.

“Three horses have been given a drop in their ratings following this race.  OUR COYS goes from 89 to 88, ARIANOS SHADOW drops from 95 to 93, and WHITE LIGHTNING drops to 92 after running off a rating of 95.  WHITE LIGHTNING’s rating had in fact been dropped to 94 following his latest start a fortnight earlier, but the Michaelmas Handicap weights had already been issued at that point so his slightly reduced rating did not take effect for this event.”

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