RET hurdle for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

Nkosazana DlaminiZuma could end up between a rock and a hard place in her quest to be the next ANC president – she risks losing if she throws her lot in with the discredited radical economic transformation (RET) forces loyal to her ex-husband Jacob Zuma … but she can’t win the race without their support at the ANC’s December elective national conference.

The minister of cooperative governance and traditional affairs was endorsed by Zuma for the position of president and he encouraged his supporters to do so.

The RET members, including suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule and the ANC KwaZulu-Natal leadership, this week visited Zuma in Nkandla where the Dlamini-Zuma candidacy was discussed and approved.

But political experts believe she would be making the biggest mistake if she ran under the RET ticket because she won’t muster enough support to beat incumbent party president Cyril Ramaphosa in December.

Political analyst Dr Levy Ndou said if Dlamini-Zuma aligned herself with the RET grouping, she might lose. He also said without the support of the ANC Women’s League, it will be a difficult for her to outdo Ramaphosa.

“Last time, at Nasrec, it was NDZ versus CR17 and she was supported by the ANC Women’s League. But if she brings the RET along with her, she might not make it because the RET is seen as a defiant grouping within the ANC.”

Another political analyst, Professor Dirk Kotze, doubted Dlamini-Zuma’s support outside KZN. “You can’t win if you are nominated by only one province, that is not enough.

She should have cultivated her support in other provinces,” Kotze said. He said Dlamini-Zuma’s endorsement by Zuma and the RET group was a desperate act because their leadership was depleted.

At the same time, Ramaphosa shouldn’t underestimate her because Dlamini-Zuma was more an alternative, especially in KZN.

But they would have to get nominations from other provinces. “I am not sure of her strategy but if she relies solely on KZN, it won’t work,” Kotze said.

The majority of provinces that have held their conferences have endorsed Ramaphosa’s second term. Only KZN had a different position while Free State and Western Cape were yet to hold their elective conferences.

While Dlamini-Zuma’s support was guaranteed in KZN, she would be sharing it with another local aspirant presidential candidate, Zweli Mkhize, who received a tribal endorsement from Zulu amabutho in July.

Another candidate who expressed interest to contest Ramaphosa is Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu. Deputy president David Mabuza indicated his availability to run a second time for the position.

If, indeed, he was running, Mabuza would be challenged by Justice Minister Ronald Lamola, Human Settlements Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi and Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane. – ericn@citizen.co.za

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