Covid count conundrum: Death statistics lag by weeks

The soaring numbers of Covid-19-related cases – overshadowing a seeming decrease in recorded infection cases – can easily confound nonexperts in coming to grips with the globally spreading coronavirus.

President of the SA Medical Research Council, Professor Glenda Gray, said on Wednesday that behind the daily statistics given by the Department of Health, South Africans should – in analysing the numbers – understand there were processes followed when someone died due to the virus.“There is a two- to three-week lag before a death of someone due to Covid-19 is officially reported. This delay is due to the verification process, including the identification of the deceased by the family.

“Meanwhile, it is easier and quicker to report infection cases.”

Another expert, Cape Town general practitioner Dr Karen van Kets, who has been at the coalface of dealing with people affected by Covid-19, said: “It does take a while to have all the data captured. It also depends on whether you are looking at data from one region or as a whole, across South Africa.

“In some provinces, the infection and deaths are down, while in others the infections are climbing rapidly, with not enough time having passed to reflect deaths – skewing the average numbers.

“You have to compare apples with apples, by comparing one area’s data and not the average statistics. The other factor is that deaths occur a few weeks into the illness – not very soon after the person becomes unwell.

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“We have to allow for time to pass to see what the death rate is and it usually lags around two weeks behind the infection curve.”

Van Kets said the newly identified Covid-19 strain seemed not to lead to a high mortality rate, “compared to the dominant strain in July”.

“The reason for this could be the virus itself, or that the average age of people getting infected is younger and they generally have fewer health issues and recover better.

“Time will give us more information and details as we track the infection rate, hospitalisation rates and mortality rates in each age group,” said Van Kets.

Professor Shabir Madhi, executive director of the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics research unit at Wits University, said there was “usually a lag of between two to three weeks when Covid-19 infections occur, relative to deaths”.

Madhi also said the trend in numbers could be related to “issues with testing and health facilities being overrun”.

The Department of Health on Tuesday reported 1,021,451 infections, with the Eastern Cape leading with 168,090 cases, followed by Free State (61,974), Gauteng (278,516), KwaZulu-Natal (188,782), Limpopo (23,356), Mpumalanga (35,511), North West (38,957), Northern Cape (24,974) and Western Cape (201,291).

There were 497 more Covid-19-related deaths: Eastern Cape (137), Free State (three), Gauteng (68), KwaZulu-Natal (114), Limpopo (13), Mpumalanga (two), Northern Cape (two) and Western Cape (158, bringing the total to 27 568.

brians@citizen.co.za

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