SA simply cannot afford another hard lockdown, warns professor

Despite the threat of a Covid-19 pandemic resurgence due to isolated cases of superspreader events seen in Gauteng and coastal provinces, South Africa was unlikely to return to stringent lockdown levels seen in the past months, according to an economist.

While professor Peter Bauer from the University of Johannesburg School of Economics, said stringent measures, which could harm the economy, were “something the country can ill-afford at this stage”, government has warned that considering stricter public health measures would be unavoidable should community transmissions soar.

Health spokesperson Popo Maja yesterday said South Africa was “currently on high alert”. “We are mindful of keeping the economy open while fighting the pandemic.

“Should the situation deteriorate, then we will be forced to implement stricter public health measures. As we have seen in Europe and in the United States, the threat of a resurgence is there. Experts have warned that if the superspreading events continue, then the spillover into communities, will be inevitable – sparking a second wave.

“We will be better prepared because we have all the systems in place to monitor track and respond,” said Maja.

Echoing sentiments expressed by the liquor industry, Bauer said effective policing of regulations by law enforcement agencies was key in dealing with people disregarding health measures. “But not the closure of the economy,” he cautioned.

Said Bauer: “We have seen signs of global economic growth begin and if we are going to try to hold our economy back, we are not going to take advantage of benefits from this economic growth.

“The country is already indebted to health and we don’t have the funds. We do not have the funds to support businesses through another crunch.

“Households and businesses no longer have the savings. We no longer have more capital inflows or rescue packages from the [International Monetary Fund] to bail us out. If we were to close down businesses now, we would find ourselves in a very dangerous position financially.

“Health measures have to be observed because they are there to protect citizens. What we need is effective policing of the regulations, similar to what we are seeing in Germany in terms of curfews, times to open and close pubs, to reduce the spread of the virus.”

The Liquor Traders’ Association of South Africa (LTASA) and the SA Liquor Brandowners Association (Salba) have come out in support of government’s clampdown on noncompliant businesses.

Said LTASA national convenor Lucky Ntimane: “We call on people to conduct themselves in a responsible manner in line with Covid-19 regulations. While government has to do what has to be done to protect citizens, that should not be done at the expense of the alcohol industry.”

LTASA has lobbied government for the introduction of the pre-lockdown trading by the liquor industry – a seven-day extension.

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