Iran: here we go again?

Iranians certainly have lots to protest against. Living standards have fallen 15% in the past 10 years. More than three million Iranians are jobless, and youth unemployment is about 40%.

The people behind what is taking place think they will be able to harm the government, said Iran’s First Vice-President, Eshaq Jahangiri. “But when social movements and protests start in the street, those who have ignited them are not always able to control them.” The question is: which people did Jahangiri mean, and which government?

The hard-liners in Iran insist the demonstrations that are continuing are the work of “anti-revolutionaries and agents of foreign powers”. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned anti-government protesters they will face the nation’s “iron fist” if political unrest continues.

There are actually two governments in Iran: one the elected government of President Hassan Rouhani, a reformist who won a second term in last June’s election; the other consists of the clerics and Islamic extremists (like the Revolutionary Guards) who serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – and it’s Khamenei who has the last word in theological and political matters.

There is always tension between the two when Iranians elect a reformist government, and Jahangiri has always supported moderation and reform. What he was signalling in his cryptic remark, was his suspicion that the protests about economic conditions were initally incited by the hard-liners to harm Rouhani’s government – and then got out of hand.

Iranians certainly have lots to protest against. Living standards have fallen 15% in the past 10 years. More than three million Iranians are jobless, and youth unemployment is about 40%. The price of basic food items, like chicken and eggs, has risen by almost half.

It’s not really Rouhani’s fault. The main problem is that, despite the 2015 deal that ended most international sanctions against Iran in return for strict controls on Iranian nuclear research and technology, US financial sanctions remain in place. That has made most banks wary of processing money for Iran or extending credit to its firms.

In any case, Rouhani is no longer the target of the demonstrations, and they are no longer just about prices and jobs. They are protests against the entire regime, and the slogans are explicitly political. Previous outbreaks of protest have been put down by force in 1999, 2003, 2006 and most spectacularly in 2009.

But three things are different about the current demonstrations. The first is that the unelected parallel government of the mullahs, headed by Khamenei, is no longer beyond criticism. The crowds have been chanting “Death to the dictator” and even “Death to Khamenei”, which is unprecedented. Secondly, for the first time the demonstrations began not in Tehran but in provincial cities.

And the third thing (which may account for the second) is that the majority of protesters are not middle-class students and professionals but lower-class people with little to lose. This may also be why the crowds are more likely to answer violence with violence.

All the other waves of protest failed; this one probably will too. But once events like this start to happen, especially in the Middle East, almost anything is possible.