War in Mozambique ‘far from over’, upbeat Ramaphosa tells summit in Malawi

As President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday told the Southern African Development Community (SADC) extraordinary organ troika summit in Malawi about progress made to restore stability in Mozambique’s wartorn Cabo Delgado province, a leading military and intelligence expert warns the insurgents are far from being defeated.

The protracted conflict has cost lives and billions.

During his opening remarks to attendant SADC heads of state, defence and security chiefs, Ramaphosa was upbeat about the gains made by the SADC Mission in Mozambique.

Months after the deployment of the combined force, he said progress made in the ongoing war was “significant”.

“The security situation in Cabo Delgado is improving, which has allowed for some internally displaced persons to return to their homes.

“The efforts of our mission, working in collaboration with the Mozambican Defence Force, has created safe passage to facilitate the provision of humanitarian assistance to the population affected by terrorist activities.”

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Ramaphosa, however, conceded that SADC leaders should be “cognisant of the magnitude of ground that still needs to be covered in the work of the SADC Mission in Mozambique”.

“Therefore, we cannot let our guard down. Terrorism cannot be permitted to continue to thrive in any part of our region, as its presence will reverse the stability and progress SADC has achieved in its four decades of existence,” he said.

But Jasmine Opperman, an analyst with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, was not so optimistic about prospects for peace in Mozambique.

She predicted that the war could last for the next 10 years if SADC leaders failed to “take full charge of the situation”.

“While the insurgents have retreated to a great extent prior to Rwandan forces arrival in August last year, we are far from stability in the area. We are fighting a double edged sword – the insurgents in Cabo Delgado and the Islamic State within the region.

“Cabo Delgado has provided the ideal theatre and we have seen what is happening in the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo], Uganda and in other countries.”

She also ruled out negotiation between the Mozambican government and the insurgents.

“There is currently no room for negotiations, because they (insurgents) will demand Cabo Delgado and create a sharia state.

“In the next week or two, we will see the resurfacing of insurgents in Nyasa.

“The age-old thing of a soldier being deployed to one of the most difficult areas in Cabo Delgado to fight insurgents becomes truly hardcore difficult.

“In looking at the bigger scheme of things, we are not even close to saying the insurgents have completely retreated.

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“If this is going to be a fault strategy by the Mozambican government, we are going to see the insurgency in Cabo Delgado for the next 10 years. For as long as there are insurgents in Cabo Delgado, the Islamic State is also launching its footprint.

“The insurgents have scattered themselves in the Salmon area in the corridor belt around the LNG
sector – hence you are seeing a rise in attacks.

“To counter people who have scattered into 15 to 20 groups in that vast area becomes difficult – becoming mission impossible.

“Where are the sophisticated weapons that we have seen at Palma? Where are the insurgent fighters?

“We want leaders that drive, radicalise and inspire the broad strategy on the table.

“If we don’t start seeing weapons at a mass scale, that talk to sophistication, which we know they have, we are in trouble.”

– brians@citizen.co.za