Unled revolution is ‘possible’ in SA

South Africa’s unchecked descent into chaos could spark a “people’s revolt” or unled revolution, says a leading security expert. Another says increasing localised protests could turn into a national uprising.

The possibility of South Africa descending into an unled revolution cannot be ruled out if the high levels of dissatisfaction over poor service delivery continue at the current alarming rate, according to security expert Dr Johan Burger.

This was in response to numerous warnings about the possibility of an unled revolution by leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Julius Malema.

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In a recent interview with an international news channel, Malema said that, should the country’s electricity grid collapse, it could spark an unled revolution that not even the state will be able to stop.

Widespread dissatisfaction

Reacting to this warning, Burger said the widespread dissatisfaction caused by what he termed the “frustration-aggression” theory could develop into a full-blown rebellion.

Burger said the many violent service delivery-related protests that have been witnessed in parts of the country could lead to increased frustration and more aggressive behaviour from irate citizens.

“While the police are still able to deal with some of the protests, once we reach the point of heightened frustration, it then boils over to aggression which can result in a revolution.

“Although I don’t always agree with him on many things, I think Malema may have a point, considering the high levels of dissatisfaction among many South Africans, aggravated by the fact that state organs seem to be deteriorating in terms of delivering much needed basic services to the people,” said Burger.

Unemployment and load shedding

High rates of unemployment and the load shedding crisis are exacerbating an already bad situation, he said.

“People are increasingly dissatisfied with the state that is unable to provide basic services and history tells us that where there is consistent and persistent declines in service delivery that leads to poverty, which leads to a lot of anger.”

Burger believes there is a likelihood of a person or a group of people instigating widespread violence that erupts spontaneously, and that then spreads very quickly – similar to what happened during the 2021 July unrests which affected KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.

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He added that such violence can be stopped but that the state would be forced to take drastic measures, which would involve deploying all its resources, including the army.

Increase in social unrest

Security consultant Jasmine Opperman was hesitant to say the country is ready for a widescale revolution but warned of an increase in social unrest.

“Do we have enablers and inciters with a political intent behind such social unrest? If indeed present, it will be confined to the local context… so no, I don’t foresee in the short to medium term a revolution in South Africa.

“Regarding whether or not our law enforcement agencies can handle it, if we again fail in providing early warning, if we again fail in responding to intelligence reports on developments related to inciters and enablers, we will not be ready and even if we have it, I have serious reservations about the capability of our law enforcement structures,” said Opperman.

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Opperman stressed that the police are not coping and lack intelligence. They are also accused of collaborations with sinister groups.

Dr Trevor Ngwane, scholar-activist based at the University of Johannesburg, says everyday life for the working class and the poor is getting unbearable, with the increase in interest rates being a further attack on the masses.

According to Ngwane, it is possible there will be more protests and uprisings. “However, so far these have tended to be fragmented, although they can be widespread, massive and devastating as in the July 2021 mall attacks.

“Usually there is an increase in protest activity in the build-up to local or national elections. This will probably happen. But it is hard to say whether, as happened in the past, the pre-election protests will be attempts to influence the ANC government or, this time, a rejection of this political party.”

He said while the working class has never been defeated and won against apartheid, it was duped and contained by its alliance with the governing party.

“The possibility of outright repression is there but I don’t think the ANC is capable of this. What is stopping the forward movement of the revolution is the loss of confidence, hope and trust among workers.”