Trump’s retreat opens the door for China’s growing influence in Africa

Donald Trump’s isolationist policy approach has transitioned from talk to implementation, with both allies and adversaries beginning to feel the impact of his stringent tariffs.

Experts warn that in his endeavour to “Make America great again”, he may encounter several unintended consequences.

One could be a decline in US influence globally, particularly in Africa, which has traditionally received a significant amount of US aid.

Trump’s unilateral withdrawal of development aid and imposition of tariffs will compel many countries to pursue self-sufficiency or look elsewhere to reduce their reliance on the US.

Africa turns to China

With China increasingly establishing itself as a key provider of development assistance and aid in the region, it could easily fill the vacuum left by the US. Intra-regional trade will also be boosted.

Recently, Jianlu Bi, a Beijing-based award-winning journalist and commentator on current affairs and international politics, highlighted areas where China could fill the gap left by the US in Africa and elsewhere in the world.

According to Jianlu, unlike the US, which has chosen a more unilateral path, China has presented a vision of international engagement, emphasising the principles of joint consultation, joint construction and shared benefits.

“China actively promotes global cooperation through various initiatives and platforms. On international platforms like the G20, China advocates for inclusive and interconnected development, aiming to achieve outcomes that benefit a wider range of countries,” he said.

Trump pushing Africa away

As alluded to by Jianlu, Africa may come with a begging bowl, but Trump is pushing the continent towards China and even Russia.

The latter’s economy has grown despite Western sanctions over its three-year-old invasion of Ukraine.

International relations expert Jan Venter from North-West University said Trump’s pressure on South Africa, which is highlighted by sanctions, is intended to steer Pretoria’s foreign and trade policies away from China.

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This pressure is directed primarily at China, although it also targets Russia, with which Trump maintains a cordial relationship.

Analysts agree it may be too late for Washington, as the Sino-South African relationship has deepened over the last two decades since Brics was established.

China’s extensive programmes

A 2024 report of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation outlines extensive programmes that China offered unconditionally to the continent. Beijing is now championing poverty alleviation throughout the continent.

Having successfully lifted 800 million people out of poverty, China has acquired first-hand knowledge of the transformative impact of poverty alleviation on a country’s development and long-term stability.

It is now exporting this knowledge globally, particularly in Africa, spreading its influence.

China’s increasing trade and investment in Africa’s development, as well as the socioeconomic aid already underway in many African countries, make China an obvious alternative to the US as it withdraws, including excluding unfriendly countries from the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

China and India have emerged as potential alternatives following Trump’s halt in healthcare aid to sub-Saharan Africa.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, both countries were among the leading manufacturers of vaccines and supplied many African nations with these critical resources.

Scientific and educational cooperation

As a result of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to China in September last year, Beijing and Pretoria offered to deepen cooperation in agriculture, health, medical sciences, and infrastructure development.

The cooperation extends to the new scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, focusing on key areas such as the digital economy, new energies and artificial intelligence.

It also expands into renewable energy, energy storage and power transmission and distribution. There is an increasing collaboration between Chinese and South African tertiary institutions in academia and research.

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South African universities frequently send delegations to China to learn about technological advancements and large-scale infrastructure development, including the well-known Belt and Road Initiative, as well as various aspects of academic research.

Since the US has isolated South Africa with tariffs and withdrawing aid, other nations, including traditional American allies, have come forward to help.

At the European Union (EU) summit in Cape Town on 13 March, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced the Global Gateway Investment Package.

It includes an investment of €4.7 billion (about R98 billion) to promote mutually beneficial investments in SA.

The package, which includes public and private loans with the investment package, aims to support the just energy transition, strengthen connectivity infrastructure, and enhance SA’s vaccine production capacity.

The EU, South Africa’s second-largest trading partner, accounts for 47% of its total foreign direct investment.

The total EU funding for South Africa is over €3 billion. It targets energy, education, civil society organisations, unemployment, health, and research and development.

US influence wanes

China is almost uncontested in Information and Communication Technology investments in Africa.

With all these initiatives spread throughout Africa, China is well positioned to expand its influence on the continent, potentially supplanting the US’ influence.

As American economist Prof Richard Wolff said, the American empire is over while China is growing.

“We are going down; it’s hard to get your head around that,” he said. “The Trump phenomenon is desperate power,” he added.

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