TDP offers feedback on progress made and its future plans

The Transmission Development Plan forum (TDP) recently shared its plans for the period 2023 to 2032 at the TDP 2023 to 2032 Public Forum sitting.

This against the backdrop of a severely constrained power system, which has necessitated the implementation of the longest round of rotational load shedding yet.

Managing Director, Segomoco Scheppers, said that the TDP  was doing everything in their power to avoid the crisis entering the Transmission space, as this would dramatically compound the challenge that the country is currently facing .

He said that for the financial year ended 31 March 2022, Transmission carried out an estimated 98,8% of the planned maintenance.

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“We regrettably continue to experience high levels of damage and vandalism of our network assets, which occasionally lead to the collapse of one or more towers. This clearly presents a serious safety risk and may even lead to interruptions of supply,” Scheppers said.

He said that they are continuing with the focused implementation of asset replacement and modernisation strategy.

Addressing South Africa’s generation capacity challenges will continue to require a collaborative multi-stakeholder approach characterised by openness and transparency.

As such, the TDP developed and published the transmission network’s Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA) report, which is available on the Eskom website.

Progress made so far

The TPD announced that an additional 400 kV transmission networks were commissioned to strengthen the grid in the Western Cape between the Ankerlig and Sterrekus substations.

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The same was done on the networks in the Bloemfontein area between the Everest and Merapi substations and the network strengthening projects between the Tugela substation near Bergville in KZN and the Sorata substation near Harrismith in the Free State.

There was also the addition of large new generation in the form of Medupi and Kusile power stations, which has resulted in various plant items being identified as becoming underrated, presenting a safety risk if not operated without taking special precautionary measures. Various plans were implemented at the Witkop substation outside Polokwane and the Merensky substation near Tubatse in Limpopo to mitigate this safety risk.

An additional transformer capacity was commissioned at the Kronos substation (near Copperton) in the Northern Cape to facilitate Bid Window 4 renewable energy projects.

A total of six IPP projects contributing 682 MW were commissioned, bringing us to a total of 91 IPP projects with a contribution of over 7 000 MW. These IPPs were integrated into the national Transmission grid in the Northern, Western, and Eastern Cape regions, underpinned by investments in new substations and enhancements of transformer capacity.

Future plans for the TDP

A few of the key adjustments in planning assumptions that the TDP has added to the Integrated Resource Plan, the latest version being the IRP201 include:

The energy availability factor (EAF) of the Eskom coal fleet, which was a critical input in the development of the IRP2019, has since deteriorated. The net result is that a substantial amount of additional generation capacity, over and above what is reflected in the IRP2019, would be required by 2032 to meet the country’s needs.

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Eskom’s 2035 Corporate Strategy was taken into account, which reflects shifts in the rate and timing of the retirement of several Eskom coal-fired power stations.

Consideration was also given to grid connection applications received from the various procurement programmes by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) and applications received from the non-DMRE integration programmes.

Scheepers said that based on these adjusted generation assumptions, approximately 53 GW of new generation capacity is required by 2032, mainly from renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind, including in areas with limited transmission infrastructure.