Winter is coming – what it means for the coronavirus pandemic

Covid-19 has already claimed tens of thousands of lives worldwide, and South Africa has seen 1,749 confirmed cases. Now, with testing stations increasingly being rolled out across the country, this number is expected to increase.

But will the pending colder winter months coming cause cases to spike even more?

Many have alluded to the fact that the novel coronavirus thrives in colder weather.

With the northern hemisphere being hit the hardest by Covid-19, this belief seemed to give citizens hope that their coming summer would reduce the number of cases. At least one expert believes the answer may not be that simple.

Head of epidemiology and biostatics at the University of Cape Town, Professor Maia Lesosky, explains that there is currently no evidence to suggest that colder weather creates the potential for an increase in Covid-19 cases.

Lesosky said that although some viruses, such as influenza, do fluctuate seasonally, SARS-CoV-2 – which causes Covid-19 – is too new a virus to confirm this.

However, she explained that winter months often result in people being in closer, more confined spaces, and that an increase in the number of people who live in a household increases the likelihood of disease transmission.

This is especially worrying for impoverished communities living in informal settlements, where houses are often located close together, and multiple people often share one house.

Addressing some underlying issues such as improving low-income housing numbers would be an asset to more vulnerable populations. This, in addition to public health policies put in place by the Department of Health, would bolster South Africa’s efforts to fight the pandemic and keep case numbers as low as possible, Lesosky explained.

She added that society must be mindful of an increase in numbers as more tests are conducted.

“I don’t think we have enough information to guess if there will be an increase in Covid-19 due to the oncoming winter, but we should expect cases to go up just because we are testing more now,” Lesosky said.

Lesosky reiterated that flu vaccinations are a good way to reduce the overall impact of influenza. However, she said that not enough is known to speculate on whether this would lessen the impact of Covid-19.

“We have very limited information on the co-occurrence of influenza and SARS-CoV-2, and I don’t believe there is any reason to expect an unusual interaction,” she explained.

What we do know about the virus has more to do with its ability to live outside of a host body for a few hours or days.

“It is estimated that SARS-CoV-2 can remain stable for anything from a few hours to a few days on surfaces such as door handles or benches,” Lesosky said, adding a myth-busting tip that there is also no evidence to suggest that sunlight kills the virus.

People can be forgiven for making connections between SARS-CoV-2, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and assuming that what worked for these coronaviruses will work for Covid-19.

This is unfortunately not the case.

According to the Harvard School of Public Health, many do tend to believe that SARS perished due to natural causes.

This was in fact due to policies set out to curb infection, much the same as what is currently being implemented – namely lockdowns, quarantine and social distancing.

Studying influenza’s ability to thrive in winter, Harvard Professor of Epidemiology and Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Marc Lipsitch, explained that four key factors have been analysed – the environment, human behaviour, immunity, and the decline of possible hosts.

Lipsitch said winter air is colder and drier, and that influenza prefers drier conditions to humidity.

He explained that humans often use less ventilation, stay indoors and practice less social distancing during winter, which significantly speeds up the rate of influenza infection.

While scientists find a way for humans to overcome the disease, and study its preferences and dislikes, citizens can rest assured that a spike in winter cases probably does not have as much to do with the virus itself as with human behaviour when it is cold outside.

This means that flattening the curve, even during winter, remains a possibility, especially if social issues such as lack of housing are dealt with before winter sets in.

The best authority to respond to these concerns and additional controlling measures to curb the virus is the national Department of Health, who was approached for comment, but did not reply by the time of publication.

For more news your way, download The Citizen’s app for iOS and Android.