Will Zuma go all the way to the Union Buildings?

Political survivor Jacob Zuma was yesterday given the green light by the Electoral Court to jump-start his career again – which he has made plain, he wants to continue in the Union Buildings.

Zuma told supporters of his uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party this week that he has “unfinished” business in the country’s seat of government.

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That vision came a huge step closer when the court overturned an earlier decision by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) to prevent Zuma from appearing on MK’s candidate list.

The victory would give the party massive momentum and might enable it to seriously challenge the ANC, say political analysts.

‘Most difficult elections since democracy’

One of them, André Duvenhage, said the judgment would be viewed as a political win and showed the 29 May elections would be the most difficult and competitive since 1994.

“There is no doubt that the MK party is growing and this will put more momentum behind it.

“This is working to the disadvantage of the ANC, making it more certain they will not achieve an absolute majority in the elections.

“There is also the potential for higher levels of instability as things play out,” he said.

Duvenhage said there would still be a hurdle for Zuma to face before the National Assembly. He added Zuma would go down in history for his survival skills.

“Zuma has escaped yet again – over two decades in the process where the courts could not get a grip on him, and he has survived to fight another day.

“But I honestly believe that in legal terms, it won’t be possible for him to take a seat in parliament.

“I think he will be disqualified on another level, either Constitutional Court level or within parliament.

“But the problem will be that there will be so much momentum behind the end game, it will be difficult politically and there will be a huge conflict between political forces and legal processes.”

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Legal expert Mpumelelo Zikalala said while both parties presented compelling arguments, “the decision affirms what the former president has been stating all along, that the effect of the remission [of his sentence, granted by President Cyril Ramaphosa] makes him eligible to contest or be part of the members that are going to the National Assembly.

“It all boils down to the intention of the legislation, not the legislation before the state.”

He added: “In terms of the arguments presented by both parties, the defence of the former president was able to articulate more strongly that the remission had certain effects on his sentence. And that is the literal interpretation of the law.”

He argued that despite Zuma’s utterance that he did not finish his second term in parliament, it would be impossible for him to return to the Union Buildings.

Zikalala outlined that the constitution did not allow a person to serve more than two terms. “The constitution clearly states that a person can only serve two terms.

“It doesn’t even say there’s a cooling-off period. The mere fact that he resigned on his own means, technically, the term was finished.

A vacancy occurred after resignation

“The law says that the term of office ends upon a vacancy occurring. A vacancy will occur either when the term has ended or when a person resigns, so the voluntary action of resigning … is when the term ended. He can’t come back here.”

Elections analyst Michael Atkins agreed that while the judgment opened the door for challenges, this would depend on how the court reached its decision.

Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema is still facing charges of contravening the Firearms Control Act after allegedly firing an automatic weapon into the air at the party’s fifth birthday rally in 2018.

“The judgment does have that consequence. Based on the written judgment, it can open up a whole precedent for other candidates to now challenge any decisions taken by the IEC to bar a candidate.

“However if the court’s judgment came from the length of the sentence debate, then somebody else with a criminal record wouldn’t be able to appeal to this unless they had the same remission of sentence.”

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He argued the IEC’s loss in the matter would not taint its credibility.

“This matter says nothing bad about the integrity of the IEC.

“The judgment may call out the behaviour of the IEC in some way, but from what we can see publicly, the IEC applied the law as they saw fit and their argument was reasonable.

“There is nothing to say that there is bad motive or a major lapse on the part of the IEC in this matter against Zuma or the party.”

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