Why Cyril won’t be SA president

Saxonwold shebeen patrons are not drowning their sorrows. They are celebrating the elevation of Free State Premier Ace Magashule as ANC secretary-general (SG).

The Guptas’ grip on the ANC remains strong. According to Amabhungane investigative journalists, Magashule’s sons Tshepiso, Thato and Gift have been groomed by the Guptas. Gift received R90 000 a month from them.

Magashule family members enjoyed trips to Dubai, etc. The Guptas’ dodgy dairy farm, and the abuse of Waterkloof Air Base, can be linked to Magashule. Corruption allegations aside, Magashule is a hopeless administrator. His provincial executive committee was disqualified from voting this week, and at the 2012 ANC national conference.

Yet as SG he will be responsible for the efficient running of the entire organisation. Mpumalanga Premier David Mabuza as deputy president won’t dispel corruption fears. Allegations against Mabuza include tender fraud and the mysterious theft of R14 million from his farm.

He has been accused of being behind political killings. Re-elected deputy SG Jessie Duarte features in the #Guptaleaks e-mails. In this context, the unproven “Alex Mafia” label, pinned long ago on new treasurer-general Paul Mashatile, seems lightweight.

This is not a squeaky clean, brand-new ANC top six. If corruption was the hallmark of the Zuma years, this line-up does not represent Wednesday 12 20 December 2017 a clear break from the past. Much depends on how Ramaphosa acts early on. Fortune favours the bold, but as Zuma’s deputy, he has been too quiet in the face of glaring lapses.

To capitalise on current goodwill, he needs to act swiftly against Zuma, who must be recalled as president of the country. A new national director of public prosecutions must be appointed, as ordered by the High Court in Pretoria. Similarly, a genuine judicial commission of inquiry into state capture must be initiated. Zuma must be stopped from evading the legal consequences of his transgressions.

Does Ramaphosa have the testicular fortitude, or the political space, to do these things? I don’t think so. He is hemmed in by a divided top six, and a compromised party which cannot be redeemed.

Corruption runs too deep in the ANC, as the national conference has proved. The next big milestone is the 2019 elections. By elevating questionable characters, the ANC has sealed its electoral fate somewhere below 50%. Other parties will rule.

ANC delegates can delude themselves by singing and dancing but the public are no longer fooled. Thanks to a vibrant civil society, including an uncaptured judiciary and vigorous media, people are more aware of how public money has been abused. They know now what grand theft looks like.

It wears ANC colours. Ramaphosa has acted too late, and too timidly, to save his party, which cannot fulfil the crying need for a clean, honest, hard-working government. Other parties relish the prospect of making this great country work. So the president who emerges in 2019 will not be Ramaphosa.

Martin Williams.

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